The grocery landscape in Europe is poised to change dramatically.

Over the next decade, big-box stores will continue to lose ground ...

as everyday value concepts and digital commerce expand ...

    • 6
    Hypermarket 29%
    • 5
    Supermarket 41%
    • 5
    Value store 21%
    • 2
    Convenience store 7%
    • 4
    Online pure play 2%

Percentage of sales by format

2014

€930B

These shifts could lead to a 20 to 40% reduction in the European retail profit pool

  • Grocery retail EBIT margin(Western & Southern Europe; 2015F–2025F)
  • 2015
  • 20% margin reduction2025 base case scenario
  • Up to 40% margin reduction2025 accelerated scenario
  • Source: Bain analysis

Competition will increase for space on Europe's store shelves ...

  • Average surface per store:
  • 2015: 775 sq. meters
  • 2025 (base case): 700 sq. meters
  • 10%
  • Average number of SKUs per store:
  • 2014: 8K
  • 2025 (base case): 6K–7K
  • 15%–25%
  • Sources: Planet Retail; Bain analysis

HOW EUROPEAN GROCERS CAN COPE WITH THESE SHIFTS

  1. Focus on becoming a local leader Renovate, refurbish and open more stores where you have the highest potential to achieve local leadership.
  2. Create a shopping experience that sets you apart Give shoppers a reason to choose your stores over rivals, including online food stores.
  3. Ruthlessly focus on operational excellence Analyze each store's cost structure and find ways to control costs while boosting growth, for example, by standardizing store concepts.
  4. Lead an omnichannel transformation Differentiate the online experience, pursue the most profitable customer segments and use technology that improves the in-store experience.
  5. Proactively consolidate Pursue mergers, asset swaps and acquisitions aimed at achieving local leadership, improving margins and building new capabilities.
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