Brief
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Executive summary The growth of the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market continued to slow in China in 2013. Fierce competition among brands and thriftier shoppers mean that marketers can no longer grow a brand just by riding a category wave. Gaining market share is imperative, and market penetration is the primary way to achieve it, as we established in our 2012 and 2013 China Shopper Reports. For the third year, Bain & Company partnered with Kantar Worldpanel to study the shopping behaviors of 40,000 Chinese households. Our unconventional approach assigned research participants with barcode scanners to determine what they actually purchased, as opposed to what they said they had purchased. We studied 106 FMCG categories and analyzed in detail 26 categories spanning the four largest consumer goods sectors: personal care, home care, beverage and packaged food, which account for more than 80% of China’s FMCG market in value. Our study helped us gain invaluable insights into how shoppers make purchases in these 26 important consumer goods categories. Building on the research we began in 2012, we continue our exploration of the major trends affecting China’s FMCG market in this year’s China Shopper Report. This is the first of two volumes and focuses on three key trends:
China’s decelerating FMCG market Growth continued to slow across all the FMCG sectors we studied—packaged food, beverage, personal care and home care—and across all city tiers, though lower tier cities grew at higher rates. In higher tier cities, which are still the primary markets for FMCG, growth declined from 2012 to 2013 compared with growth from 2011 to 2012. In Tier 1, it dropped from 8.6% to 3.5%; in Tier 2, from 10.7% to 7.4%; and in Tier 3, from 12.4% to 8.4%. FMCG growth, which was 15% nearly three years ago and around 12% in 2012, slowed to 4.6% in the first quarter of 2014. That trend suggests mid-single-digit growth ahead—though China’s annualized FMCG growth still remains higher than growth in many other Asian markets. One reason for the deceleration: The pace of premiumization slowed noticeably. In the past, the FMCG market grew as a result of price increases, new product innovations and the introduction of more premium SKUs at higher price points. With premiumization slowing, price increases fell sharply across all four sectors. The good news is that volume growth across sectors remained stable with the exception of packaged food. In the beverage sector, volume growth increased from 2.7% to 3.9%. For both personal care and home care, the 6% growth in 2013 was similar to that in 2012. And in packaged food, growth decreased from 5.5% to 2.6%, because an unusually long, hot summer affected sales. Though the growth of disposable income and annual spending per household decreased, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the number of urban households steadily increased at 2.6% per year, contributing to volume growth. Challenging offline and booming online Offline shopping channels represented 97% of all FMCG purchases, as purchasing behaviors continued to shift toward modern trade, which mainly includes supermarkets and hypermarkets. Modern trade accounted for more than 50% of FMCG market value. Growing at a brisk 10% per year, it has surpassed traditional trade in scale and growth, gradually taking more share in purchase occasions and spending—a trend consistent across all city tiers. Hypermarkets saw store visits per household decline in the past two years, from 26 visits per year per household in 2011 to 25 visits in 2012 and 2013. Smaller modern trade formats—supermarkets, convenience stores and personal care stores—saw no decrease in visits at 23 per year per household. Declining hypermarket visits, however, were offset by larger package size and with increased car ownership in major Chinese cities making it convenient for shoppers to purchase and transport larger items. Another reason hypermarket visits declined: The growth of prepaid cards for retail use slowed. Prepaid cards, which are given to Chinese consumers as public welfare or as gift cards, are used mainly in hypermarkets, supermarkets and department stores. The slowdown in their use was the result of the Chinese government’s anticorruption efforts targeting card misuse. The online FMCG channel, though nascent, is booming, as Chinese shoppers are more willing than shoppers in other markets to use their smartphones and PCs to make purchases. As a result, China is now the No. 1 digital retail market in the world in both value and penetration, with momentum expected to continue. All 106 categories we studied enjoyed high online growth—42% overall. Young urban households in higher tier cities with incomes of more than RMB 7,000 per month make up the largest percentage of e-commerce shoppers. Consistent with previous years, baby products and beauty products are highly penetrated categories with high online value share. Chinese vs. foreign brands: Winners and losers Fierce competition from Chinese companies in 2013 resulted in foreign brands losing overall share across the 26 categories we studied in detail. But the picture is different by category: While foreign brands lost share in many categories, including carbonated soft drinks, skin care, juice and infant formula, they achieved marginal share gain in some categories, such as hair conditioner and biscuits. Nonetheless, on balance, 60% of the foreign brands we studied lost share this year; many even lost share in the categories in which foreign brands experienced overall share gains. The share loss occurred across all city tiers—even higher tier cities, where foreign brands enjoyed a relatively strong presence. As one could expect, this change in market share is driven by change in penetration. Implications: The market share imperative As Chinese shopper behaviors continue to shift and evolve, marketers can no longer coast by simply riding a category wave. Growth must come primarily from share gain. And penetration change is the most important way to achieve share change. Our first volume of the 2014 China Shopper Report by Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel, along with the 2012 and 2013 reports, shows that marketers must drive penetration to gain market share. In an upcoming volume, to be released in the fall of 2014, we will share more details about how marketers can do this. Building penetration depends on continually building brand consideration—the percentage of consumers who consider your brand for a purchase occasion—which in turn helps increase penetration. The steady path for earning consideration and penetration requires investment in three brand assets:
Given that China is now the world’s No. 1 digital retail market, marketers—especially those in the leading online categories—will benefit from developing an e-commerce business model. The online channel can be used as an incremental channel to further build these three brand assets and expand business, while minimizing cannibalization with offline channels. Though e-commerce is booming, offline channels are still the main battlefield. It’s critical for marketers to maximize offline business potential by leveraging online traffic through effective digital marketing and integrated solutions—what’s known as “O2O” (online to offline). 2a. China’s decelerating FMCG market
2b. Challenging offline and booming online
2c. Chinese vs. foreign brands: Winners and losers
This report is a joint effort between Bain & Company and Kantar Worldpanel. The authors extend gratitude to all who contributed to this report, in particular Chris Wang and Wilson Fu from Bain & Company, and Rachel Lee, Tina Qin and Tony Xue from Kantar Worldpanel. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |