Private equity's expansion into fast-growing emerging markets
has reshaped the business landscape, and the Middle East and North
Africa rode this new wave of investor interest. Annual private
equity (PE) investments in the region soared from just $148 million
in 2004 to $3.8 billion in 2007 prior to the global recession.
Now, with economic growth reviving, conditions look promising
for PE to pick up where it left off. But bucking the global trend,
the industry's momentum in the MENA region appears to have stalled.
In 2009, total deal value was just $521 million, its lowest level
in five years. Signs of inertia elsewhere in the deal pipeline
suggest that new investment activity could remain subdued.
A slump in new fundraising is another indicator that momentum
has ebbed. New capital commitments to the Middle East dropped from
10 per cent of the total allocated to emerging markets in 2008 to
just five per cent, or $1.1 billion, in 2009. Examining a sample of
10 regional funds, Bain & Company found that, on average, they
were able to close at only 55 per cent of their original targeted
size.
Bain's recent interviews with more than 25 limited partners
(LPs) found that they are becoming more selective about the
regional funds they work with. For Middle East-focused funds that
are unable to demonstrate a consistent track record of success, it
is becoming increasingly difficult to attract investors who have
many appealing options in other high-growth markets. In a recent
ranking of 10 emerging markets, LPs ranked the Middle East only
ninth, just ahead of Russia and the former Soviet republics.
Active PE firms across MENA also have their hands full actioning
the money they have already raised. Through the end of 2009, less
than half of the $20 billion committed since 2001 had been
invested. Much of remaining "dry powder" has been idle for so long
that many PE funds are now beyond their planned investment windows.
Thus, because they cannot count on using capital gains from
successful liquidations of earlier PE investments, investors may be
unable—or unwilling—to meet future capital calls.
A scarcity of attractive investment opportunities will continue
to be a major challenge. Local economies are dominated by family
businesses and government-owned enterprises that have long spurned
PE acquirers - and in some cases, have become competitors to PE
firms.
PE firms can elevate their game and differentiate themselves
strategically from their competitors by concentrating on four key
areas:
Sharpen their sector focus. Specialisation in growth sectors
such as healthcare, education, logistics, and oil and gas will be
an increasing source of competitive advantage for sustaining strong
deal flow. These industries boast increasing consumer demand and
attractive profit margins, and they have proven to be resilient
through the downturn.
Broaden the investment landscape. PE firms can significantly
expand their deal flow by looking beyond conventional buyouts and
growth-capital investments to consider a wider range of
opportunities, including infrastructure, real estate, mezzanine
lending and other debt financing. Bain & Company estimates the
value of infrastructure deals open to PE investors will reach
between $6 billion and $10 billion annually.
Enhance due diligence and smarter ownership. PE firms need to
hone their due diligence processes—disciplines that are especially
important in the MENA region, where a high proportion of potential
target companies are private and lacking in transparency. Once they
close on a deal, PE firms need to work actively with management at
their portfolio companies to identify two or three high-priority
initiatives that create value.
Lay the path for exits. Developing a sound exit strategy is
particularly important for foreign PE firms operating in markets
like Saudi Arabia, where IPOs are restricted to local investors,
the secondary market is thin, and taxes on capital gains can be
onerous.
Despite recent headwinds, the region's vast wealth and solid
growth offer a lot to attract PE interest. But it will take greater
focus from PE firms to convert those appealing attributes into
winning returns.
Jochen Duelli is a partner with Bain & Company and a
leader of its Middle East Private Equity practice.