Now, with economic growth reviving, conditions look promising
for private equity to pick up where it left off. But bucking the
global trend, the industry's momentum in the MENA region appears to
have stalled. Last year the total deal value was just $521m, its
lowest level in five years.
Signs of inertia elsewhere in the deals pipeline suggest new
investment activity could remain subdued.
Last year private equity companies arranged only six exits - a
steep decline from the 17 exits valued at $2.9bn in 2008.
A slump in new fund-raising is another indicator that momentum
has ebbed. New capital commitments to the Middle East dropped from
10 per cent of the total allocated to emerging markets in 2008 to
just 5 per cent, or $1.1bn, last year.
In a sample of 10 regional funds, Bain & Company found that,
on average, it was able to close at only 55 per cent of its
original target.
Bain's interviews with more than 25 limited partners found they
were becoming more selective about the regional funds they will
work with.
For Middle East-focused funds unable to show a consistent track
record of success, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract
investors who have many appealing options in other high-growth
markets from which to choose.
In a recent ranking of 10 emerging markets, limited partners
ranked the Middle East only ninth, just ahead of Russia and the
former Soviet republics.
Private equity companies active across MENA also have their
hands full putting to work the money they have already raised. Less
than half of the $20bn committed between 2001 and the end of last
year had been invested.
Much of remaining "dry powder" has been idle for so long that
many funds are now beyond their planned investment windows. Thus,
because they cannot count on using capital gains from successful
liquidations of earlier private equity investments, investors may
be unable - or unwilling - to meet future capital calls.
A scarcity of attractive investment opportunities will continue
to be a major challenge. Local economies are dominated by family
businesses and government-owned enterprises that have long spurned
private equity acquirers - and in some cases, have become
competitors to private equity companies.
Private equity investors have struggled to gain traction with
owners of family-owned companies, who have been reluctant to sell
significant stakes or cede management control. That barrier is
unlikely to fall soon. The global economic downturn has left many
families dubious about financial assets and preferring to hold on
to businesses that generate cash flow.
Meanwhile, deep-pocketed government investment companies and
sovereign wealth funds, including Mubadala Development - a
strategic investment company owned by the Abu Dhabi Government -
Emirates Investment Authority and Invest AD, are beginning to
target the same investment opportunities that have traditionally
been the domain of private equity companies.
Their privileged access to deals and longer time horizons make
them tough adversaries.
This new challenge, on top of the other liabilities weighing on
the industry, could compromise many companies' prospects for
survival. Bain estimates about one third of private equity
companies will not bounce back from the downturn or successfully
raise follow-on funds.
They can elevate their games and differentiate themselves
strategically from their competitors by concentrating on four key
areas:
Sharpening sector focus. Specialisation in growth sectors such
as health care, education, logistics and oil and gas will be an
increasing source of competitive advantage for strong deal
flow.
These industries boast increasing consumer demand and attractive
profit margins and they have proven to be resilient through the
downturn. Private equity companies will need to build deal teams
with industry specialisation to demonstrate convincingly how they
can add value to portfolio companies.
Some companies are already beginning to organise investments
based on sector themes. Homing in on specific sectors will
inevitably limit the number of investment opportunities in any
given market. To achieve sustainable operating scale, firms may
need to broaden their geographic scope to capture opportunities
across MENA.
Broadening the investment landscape. Companies can significantly
expand their deal flow by looking beyond conventional buyouts and
growth-capital investments to consider a wider range of
opportunities, including infrastructure, property, mezzanine
lending and other debt financing.
Bain & Company estimates the value of infrastructure deals
open to private equity investors will reach between $6bn and $10bn
annually - more than double its estimated value of private equity
investments in growth capital and buyouts.
But penetrating the relatively few infrastructure deals open to
those investors will require distinctive competencies for arranging
deals and expertise in financing and managing large projects.
Some funds are widening their deal options by targeting
companies earlier in the development cycle. To the extent that
their involvement complements economic development initiatives in
the region, they may find willing partners in the public
sector.
Abraaj Capital recently acquired Riyada Ventures, a Jordanian
venture capital companies, to create Riyada Enterprise Development,
a new investment platform focused on small and medium-sized
enterprises that has already attracted government co-investors.
Enhancing due diligence and smarter ownership.Private equity
companies need to hone their due diligence processes - disciplines
that are especially important in the MENA region, where a high
proportion of target companies are private and lacking
transparency.
Once they close a deal, private equity companies need to work
actively with management at their portfolio companies to identify
two or three high-priority initiatives that create value.
Laying the path for exits. Private equity leaders begin weighing
how they will exit each investment well before the time comes to
sell by continuously evaluating market conditions for initial
public offerings (IPO) and identifying potential strategic
acquirers.
Developing a sound exit strategy is particularly important for
foreign private equity companies operating in markets such as Saudi
Arabia, where IPOs are restricted to local investors, the secondary
market is thin and taxes on capital gains can be onerous.
Despite recent headwinds, the region's vast wealth and solid
growth offer much that should continue to attract private equity
interest.
But it will take greater focus and resourcefulness on the part
of companies to convert those appealing attributes into winning
returns.
Jochen Duelli is a partner with Bain & Company and a
leader of its Middle East private equity practice. Alexander DeMol
is a Bain manager, affiliated with its private equity
practice.