Executive summary

The 23rd edition of the annual Luxury Study, released by Bain & Company and Fondazione Altagamma, the trade association of Italian luxury goods manufacturers, estimates that overall luxury spending totaled €1.48 trillion globally in 2024, a slight decrease of 1% to 3% at current exchange rates compared to 2023 (at constant exchange rates, the final growth rate is poised to be somewhere between a decline of 1% and an increase of 1%). This small decline at current exchange rates represents a normalization after the robust growth observed in both 2022 and 2023, although the longer-term historical trend remains positive, with performance in 2024 still exceeding pre-Covid levels.

Overall luxury spending tracked by Bain & Company encompasses both luxury goods and experiences. It comprises nine segments, led by luxury cars, personal luxury goods, and luxury hospitality, which together account for 80% of the total market.

Luxury experiences maintained faster-than-average growth as consumers continued to move their spending to travel and social events. The market for experience-based goods (such as fine art and luxury cars) saw a dual trend, with a contraction in the most accessible segments and strong interest among high-net-worth individuals in more absolute expressions of luxury.

The market for personal luxury goods—the “core of the core” of luxury segments and the focus of this analysis—experienced its first contraction in 15 years (excluding the Covid period). Global luxury consumers, grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty and continued price elevation by brands, cut back slightly on discretionary items. As a result, the personal luxury goods market dipped to €363 billion in 2024, a 2% decline compared to 2023 at current exchange rates (but flat at constant exchange rates). This trend—particularly acute among Generation Z, whose advocacy for luxury brands continued to decline—has caused the luxury customer base to shrink by about 50 million people over the last two years. Meanwhile, top customers continued to account for a larger share of luxury goods purchases, despite feeling that their luxury shopping experience has become less exceptional.

The market slowdown resulted in a polarization of performance among brands. In 2024, we estimate that only about one-third of brands experienced growth (compared to 95% from 2021 to 2022 and 65% in 2023). The average profitability of personal luxury goods brands eroded, reflecting the limited room for further price increases and rising costs of serving the consumer, from marketing to distribution.

Regional breakdown: Brighter spots in Japan, Europe, and the Americas

Asia-Pacific: Japan remained the leading region globally for luxury sales growth due to favorable currency rates and surging tourist spending throughout the first half of 2024. In contrast, mainland China experienced a sharp slowdown, with performance deteriorating throughout the year as domestic spending decreased due to lackluster consumer confidence and outflows of Chinese tourists to nearby areas and Europe.

EMEA: European sales increased, albeit on a normalizing trend of decelerating quarterly growth, with demand sustained by inbound tourism, particularly in Tier-1 cities and resort locations in southern Europe. The UK and northern Europe were under more pressure, with limited luxury tourist inflows and weaker local demand. The picture varied across the Middle East, with more mature markets (e.g., the United Arab Emirates [UAE]) maintaining robust growth and other areas experiencing demand normalization.

Americas: The Americas showed green shoots with an upward quarterly trajectory, despite fluctuating consumer confidence and foot traffic slowing across key cities in the US. Outside the US, Canada continued to struggle due to a lack of Chinese tourists while there were positives in Mexico and Brazil.

Emerging markets represent new potential avenues of growth—including in Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa—that are collectively expected to add more than 50 million upper-middle-class luxury consumers by 2030.

Distribution trends: Outlets won over full-price stores

Although most physical luxury stores suffered from plummeting walk-in traffic, the outlet channel overperformed, driven by consumers’ quest for value. The channel gained popularity as a preferred entry point into the luxury market, partially aided by consumers trading down from full-price environments. Meanwhile, the online sales channel entered a normalization trajectory following its post-pandemic swings. In a context where consumers are increasingly seeking immersive, personalized, and brand-curated experiences, winning brands will drive traffic back to stores by delivering differentiated value propositions and broadening in-store engagement.

Beauty and eyewear shone as consumers sought small indulgences

Beauty products, particularly fragrances, continued to perform well as consumers gravitated toward small indulgences. Eyewear also experienced positive momentum, with consumers drawn to widening brand creativity and high-end specialist brands.

Jewelry held strong, especially in the high jewelry (haute joaillerie) segment, while the US also performed well in this category. Meanwhile, watches, leather goods, and shoes saw a slowdown as aspirational consumers traded down toward the premium segment and were increasingly selective about purchases, though small leather accessories and entry-level items were still of interest to Generation Z.

As consumers sought value purchases, the secondhand market gained traction, with strong momentum in jewelry, heritage apparel, and leather pieces.

What’s next for luxury in 2024 and beyond?

Our research suggests a slightly improving context throughout 2025, with low- to mid-single-digit growth over 2024 at constant exchange rates based on current forecasts, though this is highly dependent on the unfolding macroeconomic scenarios in key regions. Looking toward 2030, the market will likely embark on a long-term positive trajectory, with a growing addressable consumer base.

To secure future growth, brands will need to rethink their luxury equations, reestablishing creativity and blending old and new playbooks. This includes rediscovering their essence and embracing the foundational pillars of the industry: desirability fueled by craftsmanship, creativity, and distinctive brand values; meaningful, personalized, and culturally resonant customer connections and experiences; and flawless tech-enabled execution, with artificial intelligence playing a paramount role across most areas of the value chain.

1. Luxury spending trends in 2024

• The overall luxury market tracked by Bain & Company comprises nine segments: luxury cars, personal luxury goods, luxury hospitality, fine wines and spirits, gourmet food and fine dining, high-end furniture and housewares, fine art, private jets and yachts, and luxury cruises. Luxury cars, luxury hospitality, and personal luxury goods together account for 80% of the total market. Overall, we estimate that in 2024 the luxury market’s retail sales value remained relatively flat at €1.48 trillion, with the final total likely to fall between a 1% decline and a 1% increase over 2023 at constant exchange rates. Only four luxury segments grew in 2024, all linked to experiences.
  
  
• Sales of luxury cars, the largest segment of the overall market, declined by 5% at current exchange rates, reaching an estimated €579 billion, which remains above 2019 levels. The market was polarized across price tiers, with the upper premium tier experiencing a slowdown in demand and local players competing harder in Asian markets. However, the absolute luxury tier continued to hold strong, driven by consumers’ appetite for ultra-personalization. Brands continued to actively invest in initiatives to strengthen their proximity and connection to consumers, embedding new technology-led solutions within their consumer journeys (e.g., virtual showrooms).
  
  
• The luxury hospitality market rose by 4% at current exchange rates to an estimated €242 billion. The market normalized after last year’s surge, with continued strong occupancy rates, and stabilizing average daily rates that are still well above pre-Covid levels. Luxury hotels are striving to use technology and data collection to personalize guest experiences (e.g., room preferences and tailored itineraries) and streamline operations (e.g., automated check-ins and dynamic pricing). High-value bookings increased, often in connection with multigenerational family trips. The number of reservations made one to two years in advance increased, suggesting a heightened interest in securing priority access to exclusive experiences. Wellness tourism (e.g., yoga retreats, spa treatments, and smart sleep technology) and experience-driven travel (e.g., safaris) were increasingly popular.
  
  
• Sales of fine wines and spirits remained stable on a current exchange rate basis at €99 billion. The fine wine market contracted due to cautious consumer spending and retailer destocking. Sparkling wines were hit harder than still wines, given the increased competition from more premium options for celebratory occasions, and the popularity of rosé wines grew in resort locations. In the US, consumers trading down favored Italian wines over French; within China, less social drinking outside the home pressured growth, especially for sparkling wine. The ongoing mixology trend contributed to low-single-digit growth in spirits, although their consumption on more meditative occasions declined. Cognac and other spirits continued to feel the effects of slower demand and economic uncertainty in the US. Agave-based spirits grew as premium choices while baijiu remained dominant in China, albeit affected by reduced consumer demand.
  
  
• Gourmet food and fine dining grew 8% at current exchange rates to €72 billion. The strong growth in fine dining was propelled by increasing demand for immersive, multisensory, entertainment-oriented experiences (e.g., ultra-private dining clubs offering unique culinary journeys and vintage dining experiences featuring retro dishes from traditional cuisine served on classic tableware). The demand for healthier, ethical, and environmentally conscious options continues to rise (e.g., seasonal locally sourced menus with less-refined ingredients, plant-based foods and alternative proteins, food recycling and zero-waste initiatives).
  
  
• The high-end furniture and housewares market eroded by 2%, totaling an estimated €51 billion, amid persistent macroeconomic challenges and a cooling real estate market. High-end projects for top-tier clients gained more traction, while traditional multibrand channels struggled with both low consumer traffic and the challenge of decoding and serving the evolving preferences of luxury customers.
  
  
• The fine art market dropped by 7% to €36 billion. This downturn was mainly due to challenges stemming from geopolitical instability, which resulted in fewer sales of high-value lots, with public auctions being more affected than private sales. The Asian market was the most resilient, particularly China, given its strong intracountry trade of old masters (both international and Chinese). In the rest of the world, modern and contemporary fine art gained share within the broader market. Private dealers, both leading and smaller players, sustained a mid-single-digit sales decline, as they struggled to expand beyond hyper-local clientele. Digital sales surpassed third-party platforms within the private dealer segment, as dealers sought closer connections with high-net-worth individuals. The role of online viewing rooms continued to expand, powering a broader shift toward digital engagement.
  
  
• Sales of private yachts and jets grew by 13% at current exchange rates compared to 2023, reaching €31 billion. The luxury yacht market continued to experience steady growth in deliveries from substantial order backlogs accumulated in recent years. European shipyards continued to gain market share. The sector placed growing emphasis on renewable energy sources and advanced onboard technology, powered by artificial intelligence, to deliver personalized experiences. The private jet market maintained positive momentum, driven by fleet upgrades prompted by increasing regulatory pressure to adopt sustainable aviation fuels. Rising interest in fractional ownership models and subscription-based services further supported growth by offering enhanced flexibility to customers.
  
  
• The market for luxury cruises reached €5 billion, growing by 30% vs. 2023 at current exchange rates amid reaffirmed interest from high-net-worth individuals. Clients continued to respond well to the intimate cruising experience offered by the new ultra-luxury segment, as well as adventure-focused itineraries focused on environmental conservation.
  
  
• In 2024, luxury spending increasingly shifted from goods to experiences. Experiences showed the strongest growth at 5%, as consumers prioritized travel, social events, and wellness-focused activities over traditional consumption. Within experience-based goods, which grew at 2% excluding luxury cars, a twofold trend emerged: The entry-to-luxury segment contracted while absolute luxury continued to attract strong interest from high-net-worth individuals. In contrast, luxury products saw a decline of 2%, impacted by inflationary pressures and brands elevating the positioning of their offering.
  
  
• The market for personal luxury goods—the heart of the entire luxury industry—experienced its first real-term slowdown in 15 years excluding the Covid period, dipping by 2% at current exchange rates to €363 billion. Quarterly growth was negative throughout the year, with the industry expected to have faced continued headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2024.

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2. Regional highlights

• Europe retained its position as the largest region in terms of market size. The Americas stayed No. 2, despite experiencing a slight slowdown at current exchange rates, while mainland China saw a sizable decline, and dropped to No. 4 position below the Asia region (excluding China and Japan).
  
  
• In 2024, the European personal luxury goods market experienced growth of 3% to 4% at current exchange rates, reaching €110 billion, largely driven by an increase in tourist spending. Our analysis of Global Blue tax-free spending data shows that tax-free sales of luxury goods in Europe increased by 10% to 15% in 2024 compared to 2023, supported by an increase in tourism, with spending per tourist remaining stable. The tax-free sales growth was fueled by a progressive return of Chinese tourists (not yet to 2019 levels), the value of whose purchases grew 40% in the first 10 months of 2024, relative to the equivalent period a year earlier, while sales to US tourists in Europe rose 10% on the same basis. Performance varied meaningfully across European countries. Sales in Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey grew; France held steady after luxury tourism in Paris was hampered by the Olympics in late July and August; the UK and Germany declined. Tier-1 and resort locations outperformed Tier-2 areas, reflecting a preference for premium destinations. High-end offerings and hyper-precious materials outpaced the rest of the market.
  
  
• Americas sales totaled an estimated €100 billion, down 1% compared to 2023 (in current exchange rates). The US luxury market followed a generally upward quarterly trajectory throughout 2024 despite fluctuations in consumer confidence. Aspirational consumers faced increased financial pressure, leading to a shift toward value-for-money luxury and nonluxury brands, particularly in department stores and outlet malls. Hyper-personalized customer service was a critical purchase criterion, particularly for younger generations, alongside growing demand for unique products. Several factors should help sustain the performance of the market in the future, including potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the conclusion of the presidential election cycle, easing inflation, and the prospect of tax cuts and enhanced economic growth. Outside the US, market performance remained polarized. Canada experienced challenges due to a lack of Chinese tourists while Latin America, particularly Mexico and Brazil, showed positive growth trends.
  
  
• Mainland China experienced a sharp slowdown in 2024 that worsened as the year progressed, with a decline of 20% to 22% at current exchange rates compared to 2023. Weak macroeconomic fundamentals significantly impacted domestic spending. The decline in spending was primarily due to a reduction in the number of transactions. The outlook for the fourth quarter remains uncertain, although the government has taken measures to stimulate economic recovery. Few brands were able to succeed in China in 2024, with only about 5% achieving positive revenue growth in the first 10 months of the year. Consumption trends from recent years persisted, including a noticeable reduction in high-profile events, as consumers opted to “stay below the radar.” Consumers also favored understated brand offerings and timeless designs. Meanwhile, Generation Z continued to push for enhanced creativity and personalization.
  
  
• Sales in the rest of Asia-Pacific (excluding mainland China and Japan) declined by 1% to 2% at current exchange rates. South Korea showed relative improvement, benefiting from easier year-over-year comparisons and a gradual increase in tourism; however, local consumption remained subdued. Hong Kong and Macau struggled due to low numbers of visitors from mainland China. Southeast Asian markets underperformed, hit by volatile local demand and limited intraregional tourist inflows. Australia also faced challenges, primarily due to the impact of high interest rates on consumer spending.
  
  
• Japan emerged once again as the fastest-growing region in 2024, with the market growing 12% to 13% at current exchange rates compared to 2023 and estimated to have reached €33 billion. Favorable exchange rates fueled a significant rise in tourist spending during the first half of the year, though the momentum slowed in the second half as currency and pricing realigned. Global Blue data reveals a significant surge in tax-free luxury spending, with approximately 75% of market growth coming from the rise in the number of tax-free luxury shoppers, further aided by an increase in average spending per tax-free shopper. The profile of tax-free luxury shoppers in Japan differs noticeably from that in Europe: Those in Japan are more aspirational, making 20% fewer transactions per shopper and spending 15% less per transaction. Local consumers reduced their spending across most brands following price increases implemented by brands in response to the weakening yen. Despite this, jewelry and soft-luxury brands with a strong grip on local high-income consumers saw robust demand through the year.
  
  
• The rest of the world grew at 3% to 4% at current exchange rates to €22 billion. The Middle East presented contrasting performance: The UAE displayed positive growth across the board while Saudi Arabia experienced more polarized results. Escalating regional tensions impacted spending among specific consumer groups and partially dampened tourist inflows.
  
  
• Globally, tourism remained a key engine for the sector in 2024, as tourist spending on luxury goods grew by 7% to 9%, while purchases of local customers declined by 6% to 8% on average. In absolute value, tourist spending on luxury items surpassed pre-pandemic levels, but with a share of only 35% of global luxury purchases, compared with about 40% in 2019, there is still room for growth.

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3. Distribution trends

• Distribution trends revealed consumers’ increasing focus on value for money, with outlets outperforming full-price retail.
  
  
• Monobrand stores declined by 1% to 4% at current exchange rates, driven by a single-digit decrease in store traffic, particularly among soft luxury brands. This, combined with pressured cash flows, led to conservative store expansion strategies, with net openings in 2024 at one-third of the level of 2023. However, conversion rates improved, highlighting the effectiveness of personalized human interactions. These developments underscore the need for brands to enhance store relevance by transforming them into experiential destinations that transcend their transactional role. Additionally, brands need to reengineer marketing strategies to drive repeat visits and impulse traffic while rethinking location strategies to align with critical consumer flows.
  
  
• Similarly, the online channel declined by 1% to 4% at current exchange rates in a sign of post-pandemic normalization, while maintaining a steady 20% share of the luxury market. Within this channel, monobrand websites displayed a twofold trend, with standout performers achieving significant growth, while others struggled to gain traction. Multibrand websites faced challenges in the luxury segment, with affordable and premium brands performing better. Conversely, off-price online platforms experienced growth, serving as a gateway to luxury purchases and an appealing alternative for affluent consumers trading down.
  
  
• The physical multibrand retail environment faced continued sluggishness, with department stores declining by 2% to 4% and specialty stores by 4% to 8% at current exchange rates. Markdown pressure eased as retailers achieved healthier stock levels compared to previous years. However, the optimal strategy for these channels is yet to be determined.
  
  
• The outlet channel outperformed the market in 2024, achieving a growth rate of 0% to 3% at current exchange rates. This performance was fueled by an increased consumer focus on value-for-money purchases and the channel’s growing popularity as a preferred entry point into the luxury market.
  
  
• The secondhand luxury goods market grew to an estimated €48 billion in 2024, with sales increasing by 7% at current exchange rates, outpacing the sales of new luxury goods. Secondhand luxury is increasingly becoming a gateway to luxury for aspirational consumers who are not able to afford new luxury items. Hard luxury, comprising watches and jewelry, continued to account for 80% to 85% of total sales. Growth was particularly strong in jewelry, but apparel also accelerated. Brands are taking greater steps to monitor and orchestrate this channel, with many implementing tighter oversight over resale programs or launching their own platforms.

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4. Individual category performance

• Few luxury goods categories experienced growth in 2024, with most experiencing elevation-related volume declines due to list price increases and an emphasis on higher price categories in the mix of products sold. Beauty and eyewear saw the fastest expansion, with each achieving growth rates of 3% to 5% compared to 2023 at current exchange rates. This growth was driven by customers’ quest for small indulgences and a wave of renewed creativity by eyewear designers. In contrast, shoes and watches faced challenges, each declining by 5% to 7% at current exchange rates.
  
  
• Beauty reached €79 billion, up 3% to 5% compared to 2023 at current exchange rates. Makeup enjoyed positive momentum in Western markets, benefiting from consumers’ quest for modest treats. The APAC market faced ongoing pressure, with growth constrained by limited travel within the region. Niche fragrances stood out as a key growth area, alongside more affordable local brands, particularly among younger generations. Additionally, technology played an increasing role in the beauty sector, becoming more integrated into daily routines.
  
  
• Within the accessories category, leather goods declined by 3% to 5% at current exchange rates to €78 billion. After several years of repeated outperformance, the category faced challenges. Top customers continued to shop but were increasingly selective in their purchases. Timeless designs remained dominant, but there was increased appetite for a fresh wave of creativity across all price ranges. Small leather goods found success among Generation Z consumers, driven by the demand for hyper-personalized products.
  
  
• The apparel category slightly eroded in value by up to 2% at current exchange rates, to an estimated €76 billion. The ready-to-wear segment remained resilient in 2024, driven by top-price items and a renewed consumer preference for understated designs. Aspirational customers increasingly shifted their spending toward value-for-money brands and nurtured the growth of activewear and sportswear.
  
  
• The watch category faced challenges, with sales of new watches declining by 5% to 7% at current exchange rates to an estimated €51 billion in 2024. The segment exited its recent growth cycle amid reduced consumer interest, and prices dropped in the secondary market. Only top-performing brands achieved positive results. Demand shifted toward unique shapes and precious materials, with more blurring of gender-specific designs. The trend of “retailization” in distribution persisted as brands sought to establish deeper connections with customers through their own stores rather than relying on multibrand distributors.
  
  
• Jewelry proved to be the most resilient core luxury category in 2024, growing by 0% to 2% at current exchange rates to reach €31 billion. This performance was driven by consistent high-low brand strategies and enhanced customer-centric approaches. High jewelry (haute joaillerie) significantly outperformed the less-elevated parts of the market. Competition intensified, with luxury fashion houses expanding their presence in the segment and rising local giants seeking to grow beyond their domestic markets.
  
  
• The shoes category declined by 5% to 7% at current exchange rates to an estimated €25 billion. It was the weakest soft luxury goods category, heavily affected by price elevation and reliance on aspirational shoppers. The category faced consistent trading down to nonluxury brands and was challenged by the popularity of sport and outdoor performance footwear.
  
  
• Eyewear expanded by 3% to 5% at current exchange rates in 2024, reaching €17 billion. Growth was fueled by heightened creativity, trading up by customers to higher price segments, and specialized brands that effectively catered to the distinct preferences of some consumer groups.

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5. Customer base dynamics

• For the first time in the 23-year history of our luxury report, the market’s customer base contracted. We estimate the market lost about 50 million customers globally between 2022 and 2024, shrinking from 400 million customers to an estimated 350 million at the end of 2024. This contraction may have resulted in part from elevation strategies, which prioritized top-tier clients. These very important clients (VICs), who represent just over 2% of the total customer base, now account for 45% of global luxury purchases, up from 35% in 2021. However, VICs feel less pampered by brands, as their experiences have become more transactional.
  
  
• In 2024, the share of the market attributable to younger generations—Generation Z and millennials—declined slightly. Generation Z’s appetite for luxury varied by region. It remained strong in China and Southeast Asia, where these consumers focused more on product quality and sought hyper-personalization throughout the shopping journey. In contrast, in Western countries and Japan, Generation Z engagement has been cooling, with reduced interaction on digital marketing platforms. These consumers valued more cost-effective purchases and increasingly gravitated toward secondhand platforms.
  
  
• Globally, customer satisfaction with luxury brands has dipped below pre-Covid levels. The Net Promoter Score^SM for the luxury industry is 25 to 30 points lower among Generation Z consumers compared to millennial shoppers. Brands must urgently tackle the roots of this dissatisfaction. Key frustrations include a weakened value equation (with more than 50% of consumers stating that they consider luxury brands overpriced), a disconnection from brand essence and heritage, limited personalization, and a narrow product focus.

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6. Outlook for the future

• For the luxury sector, 2024 was a challenging year. Following two years of exceptional post–Covid recovery in 2021 and 2022 and a subsequent year of normalized growth in 2023, the industry experienced a progressive deceleration in 2024 and ultimately a slight contraction. The sector faced pressure from various sources, including among customers trading down to nonluxury brands and the rise of insurgent competitors offering smart pricing strategies and strong appeal to younger generations. Scale alone wasn’t a sufficient defense from these pressures, with the growth of the top eight luxury brands trailing the market average by 1 to 2 percentage points (vs. growing twice as fast as the overall market in the prior five years). Brand performance in the luxury sector was highly polarized in 2024, with only about one-third of brands managing to grow. This was down from 95% in the 2021–22 rebound and 65% in 2023.
  
  
• In such an environment, profits came under slight pressure. We expect personal luxury goods profit margins, which had recovered to 21% on average in 2021 and 2022, to at best come in at between 18% and 19% in 2024 on an earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) basis. Nevertheless, the sector continues to maintain a strong level of profitability. Personal luxury goods remain the most profitable segment in the overall luxury sector, where the average EBIT margin is 15%. The decline in profitability reflected mounting pressure on gross margins, with limited pricing leeway available, rising customer acquisition and retention costs, and moderately increasing operating expenses. At the same time, brands reduced capital expenditures to protect their cash positions in a challenging revenue environment. Amid growing profit pressure, brands will need to address performance improvement opportunities across both the income statement and the balance sheet to secure profitability and cash, while still investing in sustainable long-term growth.
  
  
• Operational challenges are likely to compel brands to focus on supply chain excellence and resilience while strategically investing in emerging technologies. Supply chains underwent volume declines of 20% to 25% between 2022 and 2024, leading brands to focus on reducing stock levels to free up cash. Other operational challenges included scarce production capacities; stricter environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulations; increasing technological complexity; and heightened market volatility. During turbulent times, leading brands consistently demonstrate a strong commitment to future-focused investments. To preserve expertise, they prioritize co-investment with upstream suppliers, anticipate industry trends, upskill talent, and safeguard craftsmanship. Successful brands will also harness technology and generative AI as key accelerators, shifting their tech investments from maintaining existing operations to catalyzing transformative change.
  
  
• In addition, given the mixed signals from luxury customers, it’s time for brands to embrace a shift toward the post-elevation era and rethink their winning formula to better resonate with their client base. This includes refocusing on the true foundations of luxury by creating enduring high-quality products with distinctive creativity and storytelling, fostering meaningful connections—beyond transactional activations—with customers, and expanding toward new and varied customer audiences, all while flawlessly delivering on delightful experiences.
  
  
• Looking ahead to 2030, we expect overall luxury spending (including goods and experiences) to experience solid growth of 5% to 9% per annum at current exchange rates, rising from an estimated €1.48 trillion in 2024 to an estimated €2 trillion to €2.5 trillion in 2030.
  
  
• The personal luxury goods segment is forecast to grow moderately in 2025, with growth estimated to range between 0% and 4% under the most plausible scenario. This outlook assumes sustained market growth in Western countries and the Middle East, a gradual recovery in China that gains momentum in the second half of the year, and normalizing conditions in Japan.
  
  
• Beyond that, we expect solid market fundamentals to result in personal luxury goods market growth of 4% to 6% annually until 2030, reaching an estimated total value of €460 billion to €500 billion by the end of the period.

This growth potential is being propelled by demographic and macroeconomic tailwinds, with more than 300 million new addressable consumers likely to be emerging globally in the next five years, in China and other markets.

Luxury brands can unlock this potential by setting and implementing a clear strategy and thoughtfully navigating key dilemmas, such as whether to continue seeking exclusivity, or revert to targeting a broader audience; whether to stimulate desire or love among luxury shoppers; and whether to continue elevating prices on iconic items or rediscover a new “high-low” strategy rooted in innovation.

Across all the potential strategic choices, there’s a common need to rebuild luxury foundations by refocusing on the basics that have always characterized luxury, such as the highest quality and creativity; by fostering a relationship with consumers that goes beyond individual transactions, connects with multiple audiences, and transcends short-term hype; and, lastly, by delivering flawlessly, drawing on new technology such as generative AI along the whole value chain.

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About the Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study

Bain & Company analyzes for Fondazione Altagamma the market and financial performance of more than 280 leading luxury goods companies and brands. This database, known as the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory, has become a leading and much-studied source in the international luxury goods industry. Bain has published its annual findings in the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study since 2000. The study’s lead author is Claudia D’Arpizio, a Bain partner in Milan. Fondazione Altagamma is chaired by Matteo Lunelli, who was named chairman in 2020.

This document contains intelligence on the personal luxury goods market, in particular:

• insight into the performance of the market for the first three quarters of 2024, with expectations for the last quarter;
• estimates for how the luxury market will evolve beyond 2024, with related emerging macro trends; and
• Bain’s recommendations for how luxury players can steer the next phase of growth.

Bain’s insights are based on triangulating information and sources available as of November 10, 2024, including:

• macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, consumer confidence index) and latest forecasts;
• current trading performance from relevant luxury industry players;
• annual reports, quarterly results, and analyst reports; and
• consensus of 100-plus expert interviews.

The scenarios do not consider disruptive changes due to the current global sociopolitical situation.

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Note: We have refreshed our definition of the market by extending its scope, including global insurgent luxury brands across categories and former regional players that have now achieved global scale, which changes our initial 2023 assessment of the total market value by 2%. Some historical data has been restated accordingly.