Most sales, marketing, and product executives at B2B companies think they lose deals in the final mile during evaluation, pricing, or negotiation. In reality, they often lose much earlier. If a vendor is not on a buyer’s Day 1 list—the list of vendors a buyer has in mind at the beginning of their buying process—it’s not really in the mix.

They also tend to ignore how purchase decisions are made by buyer groups. A recent study of buying groups by LinkedIn and Bain & Company on “buyability”—how modern marketers view B2B purchasing—demonstrates that buyer groups are composed of frontline target buyers, including users and product owners, and hidden buyers such as employees in procurement, finance, and IT—process owners or fiduciaries who act as guardians for the company. Despite the impulse to focus on the “decision makers,” hidden buyers who rely more heavily on brand reputation and risk mitigation have just as much impact on the outcome. As buyer groups reach consensus, the process is often emotional as much as rational, and some members will always go for what they perceive as the safe choice.

That’s a big blind spot. It leads many sales and marketing teams to overemphasize investments that drive direct and traceable impact for the pipeline, conversion rates, and win rates. Yet a large share of outcomes is determined before leads and opportunities even come into play.

The implication: Companies often overinvest in late-stage sales motions but underinvest in the moments that determine whether they get a real shot at winning. Research continues to show that around 90% of buyers purchase from their Day 1 list, and the recent analysis by LinkedIn and Bain found that hidden buyers have half of the influence over that decision.

What separates winners isn’t broad superiority; it’s getting added to that initial list when prospects start their buying process and outperforming on a few factors that matter most to buyers, many of which are emotional rather than strictly rational. A buying committee’s perception across a few critical dimensions determines who wins.

One simple metric with outsized predictive power

Traditional metrics such as brand awareness, qualified leads, and pipeline coverage don’t reveal these factors. They describe familiarity and activity but don’t serve as good predictors of win rates in situations where buyers have to make high-stakes decisions.

A more predictive lens is Likelihood to Buy^SM—a simple measure of whether a vendor makes the Day 1 list and how well it meets the needs (including emotional needs) of the people on the buying committee once it’s on that list. Likelihood to Buy isolates where deals are truly won and lost and points directly to the actions that change outcomes.

A detailed picture of buying behavior emerged from our recent survey, conducted by Newton X, of target and hidden buyers who influence decisions in two enterprise software sectors—human capital management and cloud data platforms. While our research so far has focused on software, we’re in the process of determining the metric’s strength in other B2B industries.

Likelihood to Buy captures two key components that determine whether a vendor will win. The first is Day 1 list inclusion—whether the vendor is considered at all. The second is confidence in the vendor’s delivery—whether the vendor stands out in five areas (see Figure 1):

• meeting current and future needs;
• value relative to total cost;
• a “safe” choice for the organization that can be defended internally;
• confidence in implementation; and 
• ease of working with the vendor.

Figure 1

The importance of each of the five dimensions can vary among target and hidden buyers, but all five play a role across the buying committee. The practical implication: Vendors don’t need to fix everything. Rather, they need to identify and amplify the few strengths that tip decisions and ensure those strengths are visible where it counts. Further, they need to know which members of the buying group have which needs and how to build confidence they can fulfill those needs.

What makes Likelihood to Buy distinctive

This metric stands apart because it focuses on decisions that actual buyers make in head-to-head comparisons. Traditional brand tracking measures awareness and attributes. Win rates measure outcomes after the fact. Neither isolates what convinces buyers to make their decision.

Likelihood to Buy does both. Like Net Promoter Score^SM (NPS®), it is simple and intuitive. While NPS captures loyalty among existing customers, Likelihood to Buy paints a clear picture of prepurchase sentiment and perception. Critically, it shows why a company may be losing a competitive deal: Either it’s not considered or competitive, or considered but not competitive, or competitive but not considered. Each situation requires a different response.

How a vendor determines its position

Determining a vendor’s own standing in a category starts with a simple question: How likely is it to win a head-to-head competition?

The answer comes from a short, roughly 10-question survey across the committee who recently bought in the category. For our survey, we asked respondents which brands made the Day 1 list, which they finally chose, and how the five factors that drive decisions played a role. 

Our analysis of responses produced a score that predicts win rate against named competitors (see Figure 2). It also provided a clear view of where each vendor lagged among target and hidden buyers. Those insights can inform subsequent actions tied to the specific reasons behind the score gap, which, when executed, can increase Likelihood to Buy and, therefore, win rates.

Figure 2

Depending on the scores for each of the five decision themes, a vendor can visualize its position relative to competitors (see Figure 3). For instance:

• High Day 1 appearance plus strong differentiation makes for strong candidates that may be category leaders.
• Low Day 1 presence plus a strong perception of offering characterizes vendors with hidden strengths. They need to invest in getting on the Day 1 list.

Figure 3

Moves to make after the diagnosis

Beyond diagnosing the problem, Likelihood to Buy makes your next move clear. The most effective actions depend on where you land on the matrix, relative to which competitors, and among which buyer groups.

If you’re not making the Day 1 list, build credibility and visibility. You’re losing before the buying process even starts, so the priority should be to increase presence when buyers form their shortlist:

• Strengthen category fame.
• Activate social proof through customer validation, partner advocacy, references, and third-party endorsement.

If you’re making the Day 1 list but not winning, sharpen the perception of how well you deliver on the five areas. High-gain moves include:

• Sharpen the value story, and simplify and clarify total cost of ownership.
• Improve perception of being easy to work with and responsive.

• Build confidence in the broad buying group through compelling third-party validation and an integrated campaign by the sales and marketing teams.

If you’re differentiated on the five factors that matter but suffer from low awareness, convert the strengths into presence. Hidden advantages don’t drive growth if buyers never see the vendor on the Day 1 list. Work on two things:

• Invest in elevating visibility to match offering strength.
• Translate capabilities into proof points and references that resonate early in the journey.

If you have momentum, protect and extend it. Leaders win by reinforcing what already works:

• Sustain differentiation in the moments that drive conversion.
• Continue to invest in brand leadership and proof.
• Monitor insurgents that win when on the Day 1 list or fast-rising insurgents that don’t yet make the list.

Across each of these competitive situations, growth comes from product, marketing, and sales groups cooperating to fix just a few specific weaknesses. The analysis behind Likelihood to Buy makes a weakness visible, and once it’s revealed, fixing it becomes far more direct.

A new lens for go-to-market strategy

To generate sustained demand growth, B2B vendors must earn the right to compete and then win on the dimensions that matter most. To that end, the Likelihood to Buy approach answers these questions:

• Are we making the Day 1 list—and why or why not?
• Where do we truly outperform or fall short once we make the list?
• Which few actions will most improve win rates?

The fact-based answers flowing from short surveys give leadership teams practical guidance to improve win rates. Executives should embed the approach in their go-to-market transformations; their sales, marketing, and product strategies; and in commercial due diligence of acquisitions. Likelihood to Buy turns growth from guesswork into precision, linking targeted actions directly to higher win rates and tangible financial results.