Infographic

2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain forecasts healthy but below-average 4.0% growth in US retail sales this holiday. Four actions can help retailers stand out to shoppers.

By Kurt Grichel, Aaron Cheris, Darrell Rigby, and Stephanie Koszyk

  • First published on Σεπτεμβρίου 09, 2025

Infographic

2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook
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  • Notes

    Holiday season is November and December only. Sales forecasts are year-over-year nominal growth. Ten-year average is average of growth rates from 2015 to 2024. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

    Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.

    The authors would like to acknowledge Anshula Batra, Megha Dasgupta, Sakshi Goyal, Himanshi H, Liz Vargo, and Sanket Anil Waghmare for their contributions.

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