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Historically, US consumer scale buyouts have moved in step with the broader global buyout market. The first half of 2026 marks a slight break from that pattern: Global buyout deal count fell roughly 17%, while US consumer scale buyouts held steady, edging up from 27 to 28 deals. That resilience may reflect consumer assets’ relative insulation from the AI-driven disruption affecting software investing.
Still, closing deals is not enough to predict performance. As multiple expansion becomes less reliable, market tailwinds can no longer mask weak execution. For consumer private equity investors, that puts a sharper focus on margin expansion, an area where the sector has historically underdelivered. Deal performance today will be determined by investors’ ability to actively create value by delivering organic growth through embedded capabilities and executing high-value, well-integrated M&A.