Retail Holiday Newsletter
The big US shopping weekend still holds serious sway: Around 9% of Bain-defined retail holiday sales will land between Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year—the highest seasonal share we’ve seen since we started tracking. We also expect sales during this pivotal period to grow about 11% year over year, far outpacing our overall holiday sales growth forecast of 4%.
Using six years of proprietary credit card data and analytics from Pyxis, we’ve identified the top 10 shopping days of the holiday season. Black Friday continues to dominate, claiming the coveted No. 1 spot in five of the past six years. And it doesn’t seem to be losing steam: 55% of US consumers plan to shop the day after Thanksgiving, up from 51% last year.
In recent years, we’ve seen a rise in shopping on the days surrounding Thanksgiving. For instance, the day before Thanksgiving emerged as a key shopping day in the past two years, likely due to retailers moving away from the tradition of opening stores on Thanksgiving Day. We expect that trend to continue this year.
Cyber Monday, once a holiday mainstay, fell off the leaderboard after 2020. Now it’s regaining momentum, climbing upward in the ranking over the past two years, even as e-commerce growth slows.
At the same time, other days leading up to Christmas are gaining traction. In 2024, the weekend before Christmas neared the top of the charts. But with Christmas falling midweek this year, Black Friday is still poised to be the single biggest shopping day of the season.
This year in particular, consumers are feeling the pinch. More than half say higher prices will shape their holiday shopping decisions, meaning the period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday will have more pull than ever. Retailers need to plan early and strategically to capture this demand and win an outsize share of the growth.
Pyxis
Pyxis, Bain’s consumer analytics division, helps businesses navigate complex consumer landscapes and stay ahead of the competition. With one of the world’s largest ecosystems of transactional data, Pyxis has completed over 2,000 projects, delivering SKU-level visibility and uncovering shifts that drive growth, market share, loyalty, product development, M&A, and more.
2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook
Bain forecasts healthy but below-average 4.0% growth in US retail sales this holiday. Four actions can help retailers stand out to shoppers.
First published in octubre 2025