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The hidden drivers of GLP-1 adoption
GLP-1 drugs have already had a material impact on consumer behavior. Pyxis by Bain data from credit card transactions suggests that GLP-1 users in the US spend about 3% to 4% less on groceries overall across categories and about 5% less on fast food.
Our expectation that GLP-1 usage will surge between now and 2030 is based on a broad range of likely developments, including a reduction in both the price of the drugs and their side effects, growth in direct-to-consumer sales in the US, and access to GLP-1 treatments through European private clinics.
Adoption could end up being even higher than our forecasts due to factors that are harder to quantify accurately, such as intermittent use of GLP-1 drugs by consumers (microdosing), off-label adoption, and gray market access in certain countries.
For consumer packaged goods companies (CPGs), grocers, and restaurant brands, the appropriate strategic response will vary according to industry and category exposure. However, it’s crucial that all exposed companies build the data, technology, and ecosystem capabilities to stay close to rapidly changing consumer behavior.
How CPGs should prepare
- Stress-test your portfolio’s exposure to the changes in consumer behavior caused by GLP-1 drugs, prioritizing brand investments accordingly.
- Reinvent your portfolio to capture the needs of GLP-1 users by tapping new demand for smaller portions and foods rich in fiber and protein, for instance.
- Build clinical credibility into your brand narrative, and use that differentiation to win in AI-powered search and discovery.
How grocers should prepare
- Take early steps to assess how a fresh wave of increased GLP-1 adoption would affect sales and category mix, adapting assortment where necessary.
- Optimize shelf space in alignment with evolving demand, and ensure that changes are margin accretive, using specialized alternatives and private label innovation to capture growth opportunities.
- Consider how to expand the health and wellness aisle to give GLP-1 users a one-stop destination to manage their new food and supplement requirements, as well as any side effects.
How restaurants should prepare
- Meet GLP-1 users’ needs through menu innovation without alienating the broader consumer base—for instance, by adding high-fiber and high-protein items and showcasing unique, complex flavors.
- Audit your menu for GLP-1 vulnerability, and ensure that smaller portion sizes or meals are available while reformulating some items to meet demand for greater freshness, less fat, and less sugar.
- Reframe how you approach social eating occasions to accommodate for the fact that GLP-1 users still want to dine with friends and family.
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