Snap Chart
Written in collaboration with
Written in collaboration with
The US grocery slowdown has entered a new phase. Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year, roughly in line with food-at-home inflation, while units are down about 2% year over year in most months since February. Pricing growth and inflation can no longer hide that shoppers are buying fewer items.
What’s behind the US grocery slowdown
No single shock did this. Pressure has been building on consumers, and it intensified in 2026. Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) dropped significantly in late 2025 as benefits were scaled back, and tighter eligibility rules in early 2026 put further pressure on many lower-income households. In March, gas prices climbed over 20% across the US, taking a sizable cut out of weekly budgets. These shocks hit consumers already stretched by a 33% rise in grocery prices since 2019, broad-based inflation across spending categories, and declining disposable income growth.
Bain’s Consumer Health Index captures the strain. The composite outlook has only just clawed back to neutral after sliding for much of the past year, and intent to spend among lower- and middle-income households sits at or below the long-term average. A tax-refund season worth roughly $50 billion more than last year’s and lingering cash reserves from the pandemic are keeping nominal spending afloat, but inflation and high gas prices keep pulling the other way.
Why grocery baskets are getting lighter
In Bain’s latest Consumer Lab pulse survey, 80% of Americans say they’re still trying to spend less, and 28% are actively trying to cut back on groceries. Among those trimming their grocery bills, 56% are trading down to lower-priced brands, 49% are simply buying fewer items, and 44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions. Rising GLP-1 adoption is another factor, with users buying fewer groceries.
Whatever the mix, the result is the same: a drag on unit volume. US grocery units were nearly flat in June 2025, up just 0.1% year over year. By June 2026, units were down 1.8%, a nearly 2-percentage-point deterioration in a single year.
How grocery leaders pull ahead on value
With real growth flat to declining, grocery has become a share game, and leaders are starting to pull away from laggards. Our analysis of NielsenIQ Homescan panel data reveals that value players, including discount, mass, and club retailers, appear to be gaining consumers. NielsenIQ survey data also shows that 22% of shoppers are exploring more retailers in search of the best deals. But gaining shoppers doesn’t resolve the unit problem for value-oriented grocers. People are still buying less overall, pointing to a longer, more drawn-out stretch of soft sales for everyone until macroeconomic factors improve.
The grocers that pull ahead will sharpen their value proposition, recognizing that value means more than the lowest shelf price. Not every grocer can be the cheapest, and Bain’s research shows they don’t have to be to win. The edge goes to those that price sharply on products shoppers notice most and that use promotions, loyalty, and private brands with precision to tell a value story shoppers can trust.
The Global Consumer Lab
Develop a deeper understanding of your customers, beyond their shopping baskets.
About NielsenIQ
NielsenIQ (NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. NIQ’s global reach spans more than 90 countries, covering approximately 85% of the world's population and more than $7.2 trillion in global consumer spending. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View. For more information, please visit www.niq.com.