Retail Holiday Newsletter
Black Friday weekend will outgrow the holiday season overall
Bain forecasts ...
$
B
in retail sales from Black Friday through Cyber Monday
%
of holiday sales to come from Black Friday through Cyber Monday
%
total retail sales growth from Black Friday through Cyber Monday vs. 2025
Bain expects Black Friday through Cyber Monday sales to top $85 billion this year, accounting for 8.5% of total holiday season spending. Retail sales during the four-day shopping window will likely grow 8.75% year over year, outpacing our overall holiday season growth forecast of 4.5%.
The big shopping days are shifting
Six years of proprietary credit card data from Pyxis tell us which days actually move the season. Black Friday still leads, ranking No. 1 in five of the past six years.
Cyber Monday is gaining ground, though. It returned to the top 10 in 2024 and 2025, after slipping off the list following 2020. With e-commerce growth accelerating this season, we predict Cyber Monday will crack the top five this year.
The final two weeks before Christmas carry just as much weight. In 2025, six of the top 10 sales days landed in that window, most of them Fridays or Saturdays. With Christmas falling on a Friday this year, the weekdays in that final week could run hotter than usual.
US consumers are ready to shop
About 90% of US consumers plan to shop Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or another major sales event, according to a recent Bain survey. Those days are becoming a referendum on value, as more than half of consumers plan to change their holiday spending this year, citing higher prices as one of the top factors.
The stakes are high, but the calendar is known. Retailers still have time to decide where their sharpest offers will do the most good, and where it’s smarter to hold the line. They can stand out on the days that count with personalized promotions, can’t-miss events that generate earned media, and targeted campaigns that make sure their shoppers are in the know.
Pyxis
Pyxis, Bain’s consumer analytics division, helps businesses navigate complex consumer landscapes and stay ahead of the competition. With one of the world’s largest ecosystems of transactional data, Pyxis has completed over 2,000 projects, delivering SKU-level visibility and uncovering shifts that drive growth, market share, loyalty, product development, M&A, and more.
The authors would like to acknowledge Anshula Batra, Megha Dasgupta, Sakshi Goyal, Sanket Anil Waghmare, Shaurya Singh, Anshika Gupta, Mariana Hortega, and Valentina Vellinho Nardin for their contributions.
Authors
-
Aaron Cheris
Partner
-
Stephanie Koszyk
Practice Area Director (spanish)
-
Ian Weber
Practice Executive Vice President
-
Liz Vargo
Practice Manager