Retail Holiday Newsletter

2024 Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain forecasts a subaverage 3% growth in US retail sales this holiday season. By following five tips, retailers can still deliver joy.

By Aaron Cheris, Kurt Grichel, Stephanie Koszyk, Darrell Rigby, and Suzanne Tager

Infographic

2024 Holiday Shopping Outlook
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  • Notes

    Holiday season is November and December only. Sales forecasts are year-over-year nominal growth. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

    Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.

    Consumer Health Index is seasonally adjusted, and 100 is equivalent to the August 2017 baseline.

Authors
  • Headshot of Aaron Cheris
    Partner, San Francisco
  • Headshot of Kurt Grichel
    Partner, Seattle
  • Headshot of Stephanie Koszyk
    Practice Area Director (spanish), Dallas
  • Headshot of Darrell Rigby
    Partner, Boston
  • Headshot of Suzanne Tager
    Chief of Staff to the Worldwide Managing Partner, New York
First published in septiembre 2024
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