Retail Holiday Newsletter
Retailers faced a blizzard of headwinds this holiday season, including stagnant consumer sentiment, continued elevated unemployment, rising credit card delinquencies, lower savings rates, and higher nondiscretionary costs. Yet US shoppers demonstrated resilience. They continued to spend—partially fueled by increased disposable income—and retailers delivered.
Bain-defined retail sales grew 4.0% year over year in December, with the combined November-December season exceeding expectations with a year-over-year increase of 4.2%. This holiday performance outpaced most seasonal forecasts, including ours, and the 3.6% average growth rate from 2014 to 2019.
Digital channels led the charge. Nonstore holiday sales rose 9.5% year over year, accounting for nearly 29% of holiday sales—the highest seasonal share yet. Meanwhile, in-store holiday sales climbed modestly by 2.2%, with notable contributions from furniture and home, electronics, and general merchandise stores.
The season’s peak sales days played a critical role. December 23 re-emerged as the top shopping day of the season, while the period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday accounted for 8% of total holiday sales.
Heading into 2025, retailers face shifting consumer behavior and sentiment, economic uncertainty, regulatory changes, and potential tariffs. But we still anticipate steady growth this year. By focusing on the right strategic imperatives, proactive retailers can win a disproportionate share of that growth.
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