The tipping point for electric vehicles is based on two distinct consumer groups: commercial drivers and individuals. Commercial enterprises such as taxi services are likely to switch to electric vehicles when the total cost of ownership is the same as for internal combustion engine vehicles—even if the purchase price is higher. Individuals are likely to buy electric vehicles when the price matches that of combustion engine vehicles, or falls below it.
Mark Gottfredson is a partner in Bain & Company’s Advanced Manufacturing & Services practice and leads the firm’s Automotive and Transportation Vehicles practice in the Americas. He is based in Bain’s Dallas office. Dunigan O’Keeffe is a partner and leads Bain’s Strategy practice in the Americas. He is based in the firm’s San Francisco office.
Predictive tools can help companies gauge when new technologies will take off.