We have limited Russian content available. View Russian content.

Snap Chart

How Much Will Coronavirus Hurt China's Economy?

The recent outbreak of the highly contagious and deadly coronavirus is expected to cost more than any previous epidemic.

Snap Chart

How Much Will Coronavirus Hurt China's Economy?

China has experienced several major epidemics in the past 20 years. But only SARS seems comparable to the recent coronavirus outbreak in terms of contagiousness and the mortality rate. And while most estimates suggest that the impact of coronavirus will be smaller than SARS as a percentage of China's GDP, the absolute cost will be far greater, given China's growth over the past two decades.

SARS reduced China's GDP by 1%, or approximately 100 billion renminbi, in 2003. But at the time, China represented just 4% of global GDP. Today, China makes up more than 16% of global GDP and the estimated reduction of 0.2% to 0.5% of China's GDP from coronavirus could cost as much as 500 billion renminbi (see Figure 1 above).

SARS and epidemics like it also disproportionately affect secondary and tertiary industries. Manufacturing and services now represent a higher proportion of China's GDP (93%) than their proportion of GDP (85%) during the SARS outbreak 20 years ago (see Figure 2 above).

The authors thank Shijing Liu and Lily Shao for their contributions to this analysis.

For Our Clients

Macro Surveillance Platform

For more detail on the business implications of coronavirus from Bain’s Macro Trends Group, log on to the Macro Surveillance Platform. Learn more about the platform >

Read more

Как подготовиться к жизни после коронавируса

Ущерб, причиненный новым вирусом и вызываемой им пневмонией, будет больше, чем от всех эпидемий прошлых лет. При этом компании, предпринимающие необходимые шаги уже сегодня, смогут во многом компенсировать негативные последствия и меньше пострадать в кризисе.


Хотите продолжить обсуждение?

Мы помогаем мировым лидерам бизнеса решать самые сложные проблемы и находить наилучшие возможности. Работая вместе, мы добиваемся устойчивых положительных изменений и результатов.