Article

After easy money: Managing in a new era

As we emerge from the depths of the recession, a lot of attention naturally focuses on trying to handicap the speed and strength of the rebound.

By Andrew Schwedel and Karen Harris

First published on maio 14, 2010
min read


This article originally appeared on WSJ.com (may require subscription). As we finally emerge from the depths of the recession, a lot of attention naturally focuses on trying to handicap the speed and strength of the rebound. Some forecast a quick snap-back driven by years of pent-up demand. Others see a slower, more grudging recovery defined by deep unemployment and persistent credit issues. For anyone running a business, the more important point is that no matter how fast the turnaround comes, success is unlikely to get easier. The plates have shifted beneath the global economy in ways that will increase competitive pressure and squeeze even the most recession-hardened business models. Exhibit A is the cost of capital. No matter how strong the coming cycle, borrowing costs will be at least two to three percentage points higher than during the last period of robust growth. That's partly because the crisis demonstrated that pre-2007 risk premiums were perilously low and will have to adjust upward across the spectrum of financial markets. Government borrowing will increasingly "crowd out" the private debt markets in the developed world as governments compete with private borrowers for available funds. And the credit markets are still very much on edge due to trouble in the U.S. commercial real-estate market, the Greek tragedy in Europe, and the concern that an overheated China and other developing markets may be awash in bad loans. In the U.S. and Europe, uncertainty about regulatory reforms has further constrained lending, with financial institutions nervous about their ability to provide capital. For managers, the end of the easy-money era means a fundamental rethinking of how to finance investment. Funding projects from internal cash flow will be more reliable but may constrain growth and will certainly favor businesses with ample cash and strong balance sheets. Financial flexibility will be especially important since two opposing trends will squeeze profits. Globalization has continued to erode pricing power as competitors in emerging markets like China and India move further up the value chain to produce high-end items like cars and sophisticated electronics. On the other hand, the voracious appetite in the developing world for everything from copper to oil is driving up commodity prices. Read the full article here (may require subscription). Mr. Schwedel is the head of Bain & Company's Financial Services practice in the Americas and leads the Bain Macro Trends Group. Ms. Harris is director of the Bain Macro Trends Group.

This article originally appeared on WSJ.com (may require subscription).

As we finally emerge from the depths of the recession, a lot of attention naturally focuses on trying to handicap the speed and strength of the rebound. Some forecast a quick snap-back driven by years of pent-up demand. Others see a slower, more grudging recovery defined by deep unemployment and persistent credit issues.

For anyone running a business, the more important point is that no matter how fast the turnaround comes, success is unlikely to get easier. The plates have shifted beneath the global economy in ways that will increase competitive pressure and squeeze even the most recession-hardened business models.

Exhibit A is the cost of capital. No matter how strong the coming cycle, borrowing costs will be at least two to three percentage points higher than during the last period of robust growth. That's partly because the crisis demonstrated that pre-2007 risk premiums were perilously low and will have to adjust upward across the spectrum of financial markets.

Government borrowing will increasingly "crowd out" the private debt markets in the developed world as governments compete with private borrowers for available funds. And the credit markets are still very much on edge due to trouble in the U.S. commercial real-estate market, the Greek tragedy in Europe, and the concern that an overheated China and other developing markets may be awash in bad loans. In the U.S. and Europe, uncertainty about regulatory reforms has further constrained lending, with financial institutions nervous about their ability to provide capital.

For managers, the end of the easy-money era means a fundamental rethinking of how to finance investment. Funding projects from internal cash flow will be more reliable but may constrain growth and will certainly favor businesses with ample cash and strong balance sheets.

Financial flexibility will be especially important since two opposing trends will squeeze profits.

Globalization has continued to erode pricing power as competitors in emerging markets like China and India move further up the value chain to produce high-end items like cars and sophisticated electronics. On the other hand, the voracious appetite in the developing world for everything from copper to oil is driving up commodity prices.

Read the full article here (may require subscription).

Mr. Schwedel is the head of Bain & Company's Financial Services practice in the Americas and leads the Bain Macro Trends Group. Ms. Harris is director of the Bain Macro Trends Group.