US Consumer Health Update

Business operators and members of the press can access the full US Consumer Health Indexes monthly report and data on our newly-launched US Consumer Health Indexes site.

• The US consumer has avoided a meaningful collapse this year, but October’s data puts the recent narrative of stabilization in doubt. The composite outlook measure fell sharply, with weakness concentrated among middle- ($50K–100K) and upper-income ($100K+) households. Spending intent has also softened: Upper-income spending intent remains above neutral, but the composite spending measure is now nearly flat.
• The CHI composite outlook measure fell meaningfully this month to 97.0, its third-lowest reading in the displayed three-year window. A move this size is not noise, and it breaks the uptrend that had been building since January.
• The middle-income outlook measure fell sharply this month, the third consecutive decline. This series tracks middle-income consumers’ perceptions of the housing market, which are important because housing is often these households’ largest asset.
• The upper-income outlook measure also fell sharply in October to its fourth-lowest reading in the three-year window, reversing the improvement we had tracked through September. At 102.9, spending intent remains above neutral, so we would not describe this group as being in contractionary territory.
• Composite spending intent is now below 100 for the first time in nearly two years, meaning consumers in aggregate no longer plan to spend more next month. We are not projecting a collapse, but consumer outlook has weakened this month, spending intent is near neutral, and momentum is to the downside.

You can access our full US Consumer Health Indexes monthly reports and data on our newly-launched US Consumer Health Indexes site.

Bain and Dynata created the Consumer Health Indexes in 2017 to support business decision makers in their near- and midterm planning for their businesses. To achieve this, we have been asking questions that are within the expertise of the people taking our surveys. What are their personal spending plans? What are their saving plans? What is their use-of-debt plan? These are direct, easily understandable questions about survey respondents’ near-term expected behaviors. They require little interpretation, macroeconomic expertise, or filtering through the lens of the political or news cycle. Since 2017, our clients have been using our Consumer Health Indexes as a differentiated data point relative to existing confidence indicators. 

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