The pandemic has changed the global map of luxury. As tourism collapsed, spending on personal luxury goods by consumers in their home markets picked up the slack, rising by 50%–60% between 2019 and 2021, according to our forecasts.
Luxury went local most dramatically in mainland China, whose share of the global market has almost doubled in two years, to a forecast 21% in 2021. We anticipate that the corresponding dip in overall global spending by Chinese consumers will reverse in the second half of 2022 or the first half of 2023 as tourist flows normalize.
There was a solid rebound in overall global spending by US and Latin American consumers in 2021, with some previously unheralded cities such as Austin and Denver emerging as luxury hot spots. Local consumption was also strong in Europe, including heavy spending by Russians in Russia.