Optimism will drive spending this holiday season, but uncertainty looms in 2013. 

Bain is forecasting that holiday sales this year will grow 3.5%, in line with results in 2010 and 2011 and substantially above the 2.1% 10-year average. High gas prices and unemployment may dampen consumer spending, but elevated consumer confidence should ring cash registers. We expect digital retail sales to drive growth this holiday season, up 16% over holiday sales in 2011. This year, too, performance will vary widely by retailer, with winners employing innovative omnichannel strategies to increase sales.  

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