Demand for commercial trucks has surged

US fleet operators are buying: 79% expect their fleet to grow over the next 12 months, and more than one-third project a fleet increase of 10% or more (see Figure 1). Elevated fuel prices, freight demand recovery, and aging fleets are the primary demand drivers. 

The lesson from the last upcycle is that availability wins. Whichever OEMs can quote and deliver on credible lead times will take market share from competitors. To win those deals, leading OEMs must ensure post-pandemic supply chain resilience programs are fully operational so dealers can mobilize to win on the front lines.

Figure 1

TCO remains king—and has become more important than ever

When asked what matters most in a purchase decision, operators were clear: economics. Fuel efficiency (45%), reliability/uptime (42%), and TCO (37%) topped the list, consistent with prior studies. However, when asked how the relative importance of purchase criteria has changed over the last three years, TCO jumped to the top spot alongside fuel efficiency (see Figure 2).

Figure 2

“Reliability, total cost of ownership, fuel efficiency and sustainability have simply become more important.”

TCO and fuel economics have become more critical as fuel costs and tariffs continue to squeeze fleet margins. Nearly half of operators report moderate or significant cost impacts over the last year due to tariffs and trade policies, while 70% cite fuel prices as their top operational challenge. In our survey, no OEM earned an “excellent” rating for fuel efficiency.

Today’s “gas math” puts every OEM’s market share at risk. Despite posting high Net Promoter Scores (NPS), more than one-third of operators say they would switch OEMs to improve their economics. Willingness to switch increases with fleet size: 41% of the largest, most sophisticated fleets say they would change OEMs.

Meanwhile, 49% of fleet operators believe electric trucks now offer superior TCO compared to diesel when certain enablers, such as charging infrastructure, are in place (see Figure 3). Infrastructure buildout takes time and TCO parity remains highly dependent on use cases—but those buffers are temporary. The industry is approaching a tipping point; as TCO becomes increasingly important, more operators’ scales will tip toward EVs for select use cases.

Figure 3

The rise of Tesla

Passenger vehicle companies famously miscalculated the Tesla threat, investing heavily in new EV platforms and pushing customers toward adoption before they were ready (with government incentives throwing fuel on the fire). In trucking, the risk is the opposite. Customers see the economic benefits of electric trucks and want to transition fast. Fleet operators tend to be more sophisticated, economically driven buyers compared to passenger vehicle customers. If the math pencils out and necessary infrastructure is in place, the market could see a meaningful shift to electric trucks in the coming years.

Roughly two-thirds of customers say they would consider a Tesla Semi, and over a quarter describe themselves as “actively interested,” with those buyers skewing toward states like California and Texas (see Figure 4).

Consideration and purchase intent are not the same—and the gap between them is typically wide. However, interest is broad enough that OEMs cannot afford to take a wait-and-see approach. Incumbents should map their customer exposure and accelerate EV programs to stay competitive, keeping in mind that Tesla’s play in the truck segment is likely to extend further than semi sales.

Figure 4

Double disruption: How autonomous and electric might travel together

Our survey found widespread interest in autonomous driving, especially among larger fleet operators that represent a significant portion of trucks on the road. Fleet operators cite safety (59%), reliability (44%), and clarity on liability (42%) as the primary barriers to adopting autonomous vehicle (AV) technology sooner (see Figure 5).

Figure 5

Many operators express interest in both electrification and autonomy (see Figure 6). This overlap is most pronounced in regions with high pilot activity, such as Texas and California, and where routes are well-matched with these technologies (e.g., return-to-base routes, shorter routes, and corridors with available charging infrastructure). This could foreshadow an integrated push into autonomous, electric fleets by a player like Tesla, forcing traditional OEM-AV partnerships to reassess their competitive positioning.

Figure 6

Based on common adoption criteria and route characteristics, the trucking industry could adopt AV technology faster than the passenger vehicle market.

Six strategic imperatives for major trucking players

1. Maximize the upswing. Leading OEMs will mobilize marketing, dealer enablement, lead-time management, and capacity planning now to protect and grow share while demand is strong.

2. Win on TCO. OEMs must aggressively reduce costs and product complexity. Fleet operators explicitly stated their willingness to switch brands for better economics, meaning cost management will drive share just as much as margin.

3. Treat Tesla as a fundamental threat. Identify which customers are most exposed to Tesla, accounting for use cases, geography, and infrastructure availability. Accelerate EV programs to match the threat and stay competitive. Traditional OEMs can also lean into existing service and dealer network advantages.

4. Don’t sleep on autonomy. AV interest is strong, but adoption is currently restrained by safety, reliability, and liability concerns. Because the economics are so compelling, these issues will eventually be resolved—making it a question of when and where adoption will accelerate first.

5. Define a flexible strategic roadmap. The dual forces of electric and AVs will drive significant disruption in the coming years. The exact timing is uncertain, so OEMs must learn how to read signposts along the adoption curve that indicate adoption is slowing down or speeding up. OEM roadmaps should account for a range of potential strategic outcomes, from slow uptake to the perfect storm of rapid, dual adoption. Winners will be ready to act once they see the green lights they’ve been watching for.

6.  Fix pain points in the buying and service experiences. Prioritize pricing transparency, order visibility, and shorter lead times to improve the sales process while simultaneously investing in parts availability and repair turnaround times to protect uptime and defend core profit pools, such as telematics.

The US commercial truck market sits on the cusp of significant disruption. Is the sky falling? No—but the winds are shifting, and OEMs that fail to adapt to technological and market changes risk being left in the dust.