The pandemic’s effects vary greatly among different healthcare sectors. Covid-19 forced delays or cessations of both preventive and elective procedures, and disrupted supply chains for critical equipment and medicines. But it also has accelerated opportunities for alternative sites of care, telemedicine, modernization of clinical trials, and healthcare provider consolidation.
Bain & Company built demand scenarios for periods during the pandemic, immediately after it wanes, and then the longer-term outlook. The scenarios, while simplified, can help executives and investors understand how various segments will be affected. Testing equipment and online pharmacy use, for instance, could likely reset at a permanently higher level of demand once the pandemic abates. Conversely, demand for hospital-based elective procedures, which were already shifting to outpatient settings, could move permanently lower. Overall, though, the healthcare industry remains highly attractive for private equity investors that have capital to deploy.
Three demand scenarios can inform investment strategies.