Retail Holiday Newsletter

2024 Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain forecasts a subaverage 3% growth in US retail sales this holiday season. By following five tips, retailers can still deliver joy.

By Aaron Cheris, Kurt Grichel, Stephanie Koszyk, Darrell Rigby, and Suzanne Tager

  • Published on September 10, 2024

Infographic

2024 Holiday Shopping Outlook
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  • Notes

    Holiday season is November and December only. Sales forecasts are year-over-year nominal growth. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

    Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.

    Consumer Health Index is seasonally adjusted, and 100 is equivalent to the August 2017 baseline.

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