With cautious optimism, Bain is forecasting GAFO sales growth of 3% for the holidays. Although signals are mixed, we are heading into the season with relatively strong momentum versus last year. Among the positive signs: Retailers are stocking slightly more inventory and are planning to increase holiday hiring over last year, some consumers are excited about shopping (or at least about jumping on bargains), and the economy is on a gradual albeit bumpy road to recovery. Underlying our forecast, which is at the high end of publicized estimates, are results that will vary widely by GAFO segment and consumer tier. The purpose of this newsletter is to highlight holiday sales trends and to clarify conflicting signals.