As greenfield mining projects have grown more costly and difficult to execute, many industry executives have turned to mergers and acquisitions as critical sources of growth. But few mining organizations have the muscle to extract their full value.

M&A value for mining deals greater than $500 million is expected to rise by 45% for full-year 2025 over 2024 as companies seek new sources of growth and resilience amid instability and evolving demand (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

Portfolio diversification and gaining scale dominated deal rationales in recent years. Gold remained the most common target commodity as strategic investors moved to secure long-term access while others leveraged their own high valuations for share-based transactions. Meanwhile, interest in energy transition metals remained strong.

Developing a proactive M&A strategy has become imperative amid challenging dynamics. Rising demand for energy transition commodities is running up against supply constraints and climbing prices. Bain analysis projects that demand will outstrip committed supply by 2035 across several key transition minerals, including deficits of roughly 15% in copper, 10% in lithium, and 5% in nickel.

At the same time, capital project complexities are multiplying. Existing mine capacity and brownfield expansion potential are limited, pushing miners to pursue projects in more remote areas that often are difficult to mine, yield lower ore grades, or both. In addition, high capital costs and environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) pressures are making it more challenging to build new mines. This dynamic won’t go away, even as political changes may make it easier to permit and finance new mines in some jurisdictions.

The result? Capital requirements for new mines have dramatically increased (see Figure 2).

Figure 2

This pattern isn’t unique to mining. For example, in global pharmaceuticals and telecommunications, the marginal greenfield bet (a novel therapy or new network construction) has become costlier and holds more uncertain outcomes amid heavy regulation and rising ESG expectations. As leaders have shifted toward M&A and partnerships to secure growth, early‑stage innovation has migrated to start-up ecosystems and lower‑cost hubs. Mining is undergoing a similar structural shift—not just a cyclical turn—making a repeatable M&A playbook essential.

Recent large moves such as Anglo American’s proposed merger with Teck Resources—which values Teck at nearly $24 billion (including debt) and would create a combined entity with a $53 billion market value—underscore how strategic M&A is becoming a more important tool for competitiveness and capital efficiency. The next wave of dealmaking will be bigger, more complex, and far more decisive in determining who wins the forthcoming super cycle.

Ultimately, as the world faces shortages of critical minerals, the most successful companies will pursue a combination of new mine exploration and M&A—and they’ll have to excel at both.

Still an underdeveloped muscle

Even for seasoned mining leaders, M&A remains an underdeveloped muscle. Few companies have gained the expertise that comes with serial acquisitions. For example, not many have developed repeatable post-merger integration models similar to those commonly seen in sectors such as manufacturing or financial services.

But mining executives aren’t apologizing for that—the distinctive nature of mining M&A hasn’t required it to date. Industry leaders recognize that their competitive advantage has come from adopting a portfolio-first mindset: gaining exposure to the right high-quality assets in desirable jurisdictions at the optimal time in the price cycle and maintaining the ideal balance of early-, peak-, and late-stage assets across the portfolio.

Hence, many haven’t yet needed to focus on squeezing the full value from potential synergies and an optimal integration of the acquired target. But that calculus is changing.

Missed opportunities

As the industry enters a period of more frequent dealmaking, mining companies are starting to recognize that they have an opportunity to boost growth and create more value if they can become successful serial acquirers.

Bain analyzed 22 of the largest mining deals of the past decade and found that most delivered at least neutral or positive outcomes for shareholders. The few deal failures were largely because of bad timing (e.g., buying at commodity cycle peaks) or poor practices (e.g., inadequate diligence on the target’s ore quality and ease of reaching and extracting the minerals).

The reality, however, is that too few deals—even the successful ones—have reached their full potential. In some cases, anticipated synergies and growth haven’t fully materialized or have taken much longer than expected. Deals that closed near the peak of commodity cycles have carried inflated valuations and required the buyer to pay large price premiums, making it difficult to meet the resulting high expectations of value creation in post-acquisition execution. And in some cases, diversification outside the core portfolio brought significant risk because the buyer wasn’t strategically positioned to achieve the deal’s full potential.

The next frontier isn’t avoiding failure; it’s mastering repeatable success.

Capturing the full upside of each deal will require companies to build new capabilities and a repeatable M&A playbook that is supported by a diligence scorecard and a 100-day integration blueprint. The first part is about mastering what’s in the ground: honing the skills needed to value and acquire the right ore bodies at the right time. The second is about mastering what’s on the table: strengthening the more universal capabilities needed to integrate and operate those businesses to achieve their full potential. The best mining acquirers do both extremely well. Those who focus on only one tend to leave value in the ground or on the table.

The first half of the equation requires getting the geology and timing right as well as pursuing assets in which the acquirer is the natural owner. The second half requires running the business with discipline and thinking beyond cost synergies.

Getting the geology and timing right: Good mining dealmaking begins with a clear-eyed assessment of not just what you’re buying, but why now. That means building repeatable diligence capabilities that combine geological assessment with commercial and policy foresight. Top acquirers are strengthening their ability to screen the market for exactly what they want, move quickly when they find it, and assess asset quality with the utmost technical precision. This discipline allows them to bid with confidence while avoiding the common trap of buying near the top of the commodity cycle or paying an excessive premium.

For example, Evolution Mining has consistently stepped in when major miners are divesting or refocusing, targeting deals with geological upside and motivated sellers. Their purchases of Cowal (2015), Red Lake (2020), Kundana (2021), and Ernest Henry (2022) all fit this mold.

Pursuing assets in which you’re the natural owner: Even when the mineral looks attractive, not every buyer is the right one. Successful miners target assets in which they have a genuine competitive advantage that best positions them to extract full value—for instance, bringing deep-mining expertise to an operation in which the seller has struggled with yield, or leveraging existing infrastructure to unlock stranded ore.

Running the business with discipline: Mining firms often focus so intently on the ore deposit that they overlook the integration work aboveground and miss value-creating opportunities. Some synergy sources are obvious or straightforward—everything from consolidating overlapping functions and overhead to bundling energy and mining equipment procurement. Some opportunities might require a bit more imagination or foresight to unlock, such as better coordinating community and government engagement efforts. The best acquirers plan this integration early and avoid penny-wise, pound-foolish cost cutting. For instance, retaining experienced permitting staffers could easily pay dividends.

Thinking beyond cost synergies: Efficiency matters, but the most successful mining acquirers also think creatively about capability and growth synergies. Leading companies form regional clusters of mines or merge adjacent mines. For example, almost two-thirds of the projected $2.2 billion in EBITDA synergies from Anglo American’s proposed merger with Teck Resources would come from combining the Quebrada Blanca and Collahuasi operations in Chile into a major mining complex.

In another prominent example, Agnico Eagle’s $10.7 billion merger with Kirkland Lake Gold in 2022 created the world’s second-largest gold producer, anchored in expanding the two companies’ Abitibi gold belt presence. The deal initially targeted between $800 million and $2 billion in synergies over the first 5 to 10 years. Only about 15% to 20% of these synergies are related to general and administrative (G&A) expenses, with the real value generated from true operational and strategic synergies (e.g., unifying mining operations, consolidating infrastructure, gleaning procurement and warehousing savings, and redesigning projects to leverage existing assets). By the second quarter of 2022, Agnico reported many quick-win synergies, suggesting it could exceed the $2 billion synergy target. Although too early to evaluate, the commissioning of the Macassa mine’s No. 4 shaft in 2023 and record gold production and free cash flow in 2024 signal strong momentum on operational and strategic synergies.

Evolution Mining sets a great example of how repeatable, strategic M&A can deliver real value for shareholders. Evolution uses M&A to build regional long-life hubs in which adjacent assets and shared know-how compound value. Synergies are pursued less as top-down cost reductions and more as operating leverage: shared infrastructure, mining method transfer, and portfolio mix (more copper) that strengthens margins through cycles.

The company’s deal history highlights winning themes in the M&A strategy.

• Capability fit: With the 2023 acquisition of 80% of Northparkes in Australia, large-scale underground credentials (from Ernest Henry) unlocked mining method optionality and operational synergies rather than simple headline G&A cuts.
• Adjacency: The 2021 acquisition of Battle North Gold accelerated production at Evolution’s Red Lake operation in Canada to more than 300,000 ounces per year via Battle North’s adjacent Bateman mill. Similarly, the Northparkes acquisition’s proximity to Evolution’s Cowal asset supports shared regional teams and optionality for suppliers and haul logistics, reducing the capital intensity of near-term operations in the region.
• Portfolio mix strategy: The Northparkes acquisition lifted Evolution’s copper exposure to 30% of revenue, strengthening the company’s resilience to commodity cycles.

Mining has always been cyclical, but value creation doesn’t have to be. That’s why the best companies treat M&A as a core capability. The early movers who build deal discipline now will own this industry super cycle and control their own destiny, no matter what the market does next.