Etude

Risk of a bubble or motor for growth?

For several years, the existence of a Brazilian housing bubble has been the subject of extensive discussion among economists, market analysts and even potential home buyers.

Par Rodolfo Spielmann, Silvio Marote, André Soresini and Luís Mello

First published on août 15, 2013
min


For several years, the existence of a Brazilian housing bubble has been the subject of extensive discussion among economists, market analysts and even potential home buyers. The concern stems from the increase in property prices across the country in recent years. This study aims to evaluate the current stage of evolution of the Brazilian mortgage industry in light of the history of other countries. Both are directly impacted by the recent global crises as well as those that were able to resist it. Bain believes that, beyond the perception of price increases, several other indicators should be monitored to better define the existence or absence of a housing bubble, and the potential dimensions that could cause one to develop and burst. In addition to analyzing this process, we also examine how a housing credit holder behaves in moments of crises. (Full text only available in Portuguese) Download PDF

For several years, the existence of a Brazilian housing bubble has been the subject of extensive discussion among economists, market analysts and even potential home buyers. The concern stems from the increase in property prices across the country in recent years. This study aims to evaluate the current stage of evolution of the Brazilian mortgage industry in light of the history of other countries. Both are directly impacted by the recent global crises as well as those that were able to resist it.

Bain believes that, beyond the perception of price increases, several other indicators should be monitored to better define the existence or absence of a housing bubble, and the potential dimensions that could cause one to develop and burst. In addition to analyzing this process, we also examine how a housing credit holder behaves in moments of crises.

(Full text only available in Portuguese)

Download PDF