Infographic

2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain forecasts healthy but below-average 4.0% growth in US retail sales this holiday. Four actions can help retailers stand out to shoppers.

By Kurt Grichel, Aaron Cheris, Darrell Rigby, and Stephanie Koszyk

Infographic

2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook
en
  • Notes

    Holiday season is November and December only. Sales forecasts are year-over-year nominal growth. Ten-year average is average of growth rates from 2015 to 2024. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

    Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.

    The authors would like to acknowledge Megha Dasgupta, Sakshi Goyal, Himanshi H, Liz Vargo, and Sanket Anil Waghmare for their contributions.

Authors
  • Headshot of Kurt Grichel
    Partner, Seattle
  • Headshot of Aaron Cheris
    Partner, San Francisco
  • Headshot of Darrell Rigby
    Partner, Boston
  • Headshot of Stephanie Koszyk
    Practice Vice President, Dallas
Contact us
Published in September 2025
Tags

How We've Helped Clients

Sales and Marketing Inspiring retail employees to think and act like owners

Read case study

Performance Improvement Retailer's performance improvement boosts shareholder value

Read case study

Digital Omnichannel strategy boosts fashion company

Read case study

Ready to talk?

We work with ambitious leaders who want to define the future, not hide from it. Together, we achieve extraordinary outcomes.

Contact Bain

How can we help you?

See all offices