2011-2012 Retail Holiday Newsletter #1

Despite continued economic unease in the United States, Bain is forecasting GAFO growth of 3% during the 2011-2012 holiday season—above the 10-year historical average of 2.1% but below last year's 4.1% growth. E-commerce sales are becoming an increasingly important component of retailers' success, with mobile playing a bigger role this holiday season than ever before. Bain is forecasting e-commerce holiday sales will grow 15% in 2011, 4 points higher than 2010. Underlying our forecasts are results that will vary widely by retailer. In this newsletter, we also take an in-depth look at the "hourglass effect": Luxury and value retailers fare well, while retailers in the middle feel continued pressure.