Report

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024–34

Over the next decade, Southeast Asia should outpace China in GDP growth and foreign direct investment and fully overcome Covid-19-induced disruption.

Di Charles Ormiston e Taimur Baig

First published on agosto 01, 2024
Tempo di lettura min.


Written in collaboration with Written in collaboration with Key Insights Over the last 30 years, Southeast Asia has underachieved its potential. However, the seeds of a resurgence have been sown. Over the next decade, Southeast Asia will likely grow faster than the last decade, with higher GDP growth and higher total FDI than China. Southeast Asia’s growth will be driven by stronger domestic economies and a resurgence in investment catalyzed by “China + 1” supply chain shifts. Southeast Asia could exceed these projections if global growth and trading conditions become stronger. Southeast Asia should learn from other fast-growing economies and address economic and business fundamentals. The most important investments are in human capital (education, vocational training, worker health) and good governance. To grow faster than our forecasts, Southeast Asia should pull five levers: Invest in new growth sectors Foster tech-enabled disruptors (TEDs), such as entrepreneurs and aggressive incumbents; expand capital markets’ breadth and depth Accelerate green transition Commit to growth-friendly multilateral initiatives, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and a transnational electricity grid. Southeast Asia need not envision itself as a common market. Each country should commit to its own policy upgrades. Coordinated ASEAN initiatives can at most augment growth, but they cannot remedy country-specific fundamental weaknesses. Country strategies are evolving. Vietnam’s leadership is less assured, while the Philippines and Malaysia have improved their prospects. Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore are staying on the path charted out before the pandemic. DOWNLOAD THE REPORT EXPLORE MORE REPORT INSIGHTS About Angsana Council Founded in 2022 by Monk’s Hill Ventures, the Angsana Council is a non-profit group that is committed to increasing the growth and prosperity of Southeast Asian businesses and economies. The Angsana Council is led by members with a track record in accelerating economic and societal change in Southeast Asia. Our mission is to shift the world’s attention to the thriving region through dialogues with entrepreneurs, policymakers, and change agents. We advocate that steady historical growth can be achieved by raising investment levels, promoting entrepreneurial activity, supporting growth-friendly policies, and strengthening institutions. A cornerstone of the Angsana Council’s work is integrated insights from deep business, government, and social experience and access to comprehensive quantitative and qualitative research. The Angsana Council is financed by Monk’s Hill Ventures, a venture capital firm investing in earlystage tech companies, primarily Pre Series-A, and Series A, in Southeast Asia. Backed by institutional investors and family offices worldwide, Monk’s Hill Ventures works with great entrepreneurs to use technology to improve the lives of millions of people in the region. The Angsana Council will collaborate closely with partners who share our desire to positively impact the markets in which we operate. About DBS DBS is a leading financial services group in Asia with a presence in 19 markets. Headquartered and listed in Singapore, DBS is in the three key Asian axes of growth: Greater China, Southeast Asia and South Asia. The bank's "AA-" and "Aa1" credit ratings are among the highest in the world. Recognised for its global leadership, DBS has been named “World’s Best Bank” by Global Finance, “World’s Best Bank” by Euromoney and “Global Bank of the Year” by The Banker. The bank is at the forefront of leveraging digital technology to shape the future of banking, having been named “World’s Best Digital Bank” by Euromoney and the world’s “Most Innovative in Digital Banking” by The Banker. In addition, DBS has been accorded the “Safest Bank in Asia” award by Global Finance for 15 consecutive years from 2009 to 2023. DBS provides a full range of services in consumer, SME, and corporate banking. As a bank born and bred in Asia, DBS understands the intricacies of doing business in the region’s most dynamic markets. DBS is committed to building lasting relationships with customers, as it banks the Asian way. Through the DBS Foundation, the bank creates impact beyond banking by supporting businesses for impact: enterprises with a double bottom-line of profit and social and/or environmental impact. DBS Foundation also gives back to society in various ways, including equipping underserved communities with future-ready skills and helping them to build food resilience. With its extensive network of operations in Asia and emphasis on engaging and empowering its staff, DBS presents exciting career opportunities. For more information, please visit www.dbs.com.

Written in collaboration with

Key Insights

Over the last 30 years, Southeast Asia has underachieved its potential. However, the seeds of a resurgence have been sown.
Over the next decade, Southeast Asia will likely grow faster than the last decade, with higher GDP growth and higher total FDI than China. Southeast Asia’s growth will be driven by stronger domestic economies and a resurgence in investment catalyzed by “China + 1” supply chain shifts.
Southeast Asia could exceed these projections if global growth and trading conditions become stronger.
Southeast Asia should learn from other fast-growing economies and address economic and business fundamentals. The most important investments are in human capital (education, vocational training, worker health) and good governance.
To grow faster than our forecasts, Southeast Asia should pull five levers:

1. Invest in new growth sectors
2. Foster tech-enabled disruptors (TEDs), such as entrepreneurs and aggressive incumbents;
3. expand capital markets’ breadth and depth
4. Accelerate green transition
5. Commit to growth-friendly multilateral initiatives, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and a transnational electricity grid.

Southeast Asia need not envision itself as a common market. Each country should commit to its own policy upgrades. Coordinated ASEAN initiatives can at most augment growth, but they cannot remedy country-specific fundamental weaknesses.
Country strategies are evolving. Vietnam’s leadership is less assured, while the Philippines and Malaysia have improved their prospects. Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore are staying on the path charted out before the pandemic.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT

EXPLORE MORE REPORT INSIGHTS

About Angsana Council

Founded in 2022 by Monk’s Hill Ventures, the Angsana Council is a non-profit group that is committed to increasing the growth and prosperity of Southeast Asian businesses and economies. The Angsana Council is led by members with a track record in accelerating economic and societal change in Southeast Asia. Our mission is to shift the world’s attention to the thriving region through dialogues with entrepreneurs, policymakers, and change agents. We advocate that steady historical growth can be achieved by raising investment levels, promoting entrepreneurial activity, supporting growth-friendly policies, and strengthening institutions. A cornerstone of the Angsana Council’s work is integrated insights from deep business, government, and social experience and access to comprehensive quantitative and qualitative research. The Angsana Council is financed by Monk’s Hill Ventures, a venture capital firm investing in earlystage tech companies, primarily Pre Series-A, and Series A, in Southeast Asia. Backed by institutional investors and family offices worldwide, Monk’s Hill Ventures works with great entrepreneurs to use technology to improve the lives of millions of people in the region. The Angsana Council will collaborate closely with partners who share our desire to positively impact the markets in which we operate.

About DBS

DBS is a leading financial services group in Asia with a presence in 19 markets. Headquartered and listed in Singapore, DBS is in the three key Asian axes of growth: Greater China, Southeast Asia and South Asia. The bank's "AA-" and "Aa1" credit ratings are among the highest in the world. Recognised for its global leadership, DBS has been named “World’s Best Bank” by Global Finance, “World’s Best Bank” by Euromoney and “Global Bank of the Year” by The Banker. The bank is at the forefront of leveraging digital technology to shape the future of banking, having been named “World’s Best Digital Bank” by Euromoney and the world’s “Most Innovative in Digital Banking” by The Banker. In addition, DBS has been accorded the “Safest Bank in Asia” award by Global Finance for 15 consecutive years from 2009 to 2023. DBS provides a full range of services in consumer, SME, and corporate banking. As a bank born and bred in Asia, DBS understands the intricacies of doing business in the region’s most dynamic markets. DBS is committed to building lasting relationships with customers, as it banks the Asian way. Through the DBS Foundation, the bank creates impact beyond banking by supporting businesses for impact: enterprises with a double bottom-line of profit and social and/or environmental impact. DBS Foundation also gives back to society in various ways, including equipping underserved communities with future-ready skills and helping them to build food resilience. With its extensive network of operations in Asia and emphasis on engaging and empowering its staff, DBS presents exciting career opportunities. For more information, please visit www.dbs.com.