Dry Powder: The Private Equity Podcast
On the previous episode of Dry Powder, I made the case for optimism in 2026. When you strip away the emotions around tariffs and look at the underlying data, you could argue that nothing materially bad happened in the macro world in 2025. Today on the show, I pressure test that thesis with my colleague Karen Harris, managing director of Bain’s Macro Trends Group.
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“It isn’t as if the US economy has just shrugged off recession risk,” Karen argues. “It’s just not in the top-line GDP stats, maybe, yet.”
We unpack the lingering risks that the Macro Trends Group will be monitoring in 2026, from persistent tariff disruptions to great-power competition to the signs of a subterranean recession in the US labor market.
The Private Equity Podcast
In our podcast series, Bain's Hugh MacArthur interviews leading experts on the trends and opportunities that will redefine the private equity industry.
First published in Januar 2026