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The global personal luxury goods market held steady amid this year’s macroeconomic turbulence, according to the 24th edition of the Bain & Company Luxury Study, released in collaboration with the Italian luxury goods body Fondazione Altagamma. After reaching €364 billion in 2024, sales of personal luxury goods are forecast to total €358 billion in 2025, a mild 2% erosion that would equate to a flat performance at constant exchange rates. That predicted full-year outcome is better than expectations at midyear.
Sales showed sequential improvements through the first three quarters of 2025 on a constant currency basis. Strong categories included jewelry, eyewear, and fragrances, while the Middle East was a regional highlight. Stable performance in the Americas reflected the renewed confidence of high-end consumers due to the buoyancy of the US stock market in the second half of 2025. The economic slowdown in mainland China remained challenging, albeit with some improvement. The Japanese market softened after experiencing a surge in demand in 2024, especially from Chinese tourists. Globally, sales of luxury shoes and leather goods weakened.
Across the industry, higher operating costs and pressure on full-price sales continued to constrain profitability in 2025, exacerbating the need for brands to deploy performance improvement measures—aided by new possibilities unlocked by AI—without compromising the desirability of their products.
Our forecasts suggest that the market is still set to enjoy robust underlying sales growth over the next decade, aided by an expansion of the customer base as new generations enter the market and older cohorts keep buying. However, the post-Covid era of price elevation appears to be ending, as demand from mid-tier aspirational shoppers falters. Tomorrow’s winners will forge a durable bond with an increasingly fragmented, values-led, and experience-focused audience, combining immediate relevance and lasting value in the process.
First published in novembre 2025