Retail Holiday Newsletter

2023 Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain forecasts 3% nominal growth in US retail sales this holiday, the lowest since 2018. Six tips can help retailers weather the snowstorm.

Von Aaron Cheris, Sarah Irizarry, Stephanie Koszyk, Darrell Rigby, und Suzanne Tager

  • First published on September 11, 2023

Infografik

2023 Holiday Shopping Outlook
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  • Notes

    Holiday season is November and December only. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

    Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.

    Consumer Health Index is seasonally adjusted, and 100 is equivalent to the August 2017 baseline.

    The authors would like to acknowledge Harkaran Abhaypal, Anshula Batra, Megha Dasgupta, Krati Gupta, Sameer Gupta, Mrigya Kochar, Shivali Srivastava, and Liz Vargo for their contributions to this newsletter.

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