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Prior to 2010, trusting a stranger for a ride or staying in someone else’s home for a family vacation felt unfathomable. The idea of taking a fully autonomous taxi around LA sounded like science fiction. The story, though, is familiar: Once far-fetched behaviors become routine, seemingly overnight.
The next leap from novelty to normal? AI buying your household goods, start to finish, on your behalf. Agentic AI is closer than most realize, poised to become part of our everyday once consumer trust and infrastructure click into place.
Bain estimates that the US agentic commerce market could reach $300 to $500 billion by 2030, making up roughly 15% to 25% of overall e-commerce. We define agentic commerce as purchases that are initiated, influenced, or completed by third-party AI agents or retailer-hosted agents, excluding shopping journeys that only use AI-assisted search or discovery.
How will adoption unfold? Already, 30% to 45% of US consumers are using generative AI for product research and comparison. AI and agents influenced $3 billion of US Black Friday sales, according to Salesforce. But shoppers remain hesitant, with most saying they aren’t comfortable letting AI handle an end-to-end transaction yet.
We believe adoption will vary by category and retailer, depending on the shopper’s intent and where AI can be most supportive. Spec-driven asks (“cheapest four-pack of Energizer AA batteries by tomorrow”) will flip sooner as shoppers seek to optimize for price, availability, and convenience, quickly disrupting multi-brand retailers. More considered purchases, like apparel or travel, will follow as trust grows.
The bottom line for retailers and brands: By 2030, AI will touch most online shopping in some capacity, completing up to a quarter of transactions. Leading retailers will determine their agentic commerce strategy today and, in the process, retain as much ownership of data, fulfillment, and checkout as possible.
First published in Dezember 2025