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The Amazon Prime Big Deal Days event is almost here, and it’s on track to deliver. Drawing on years of proprietary credit card data and analytics from Pyxis, we forecast that Amazon’s US gross merchandise value (GMV) during October 7 and 8 will grow around 7% vs. last year. In terms of total sales, we expect it to be the biggest October Prime event to date—roughly 40% larger than Amazon’s first October Prime event five years ago.
While projected GMV growth is below the double digits that Amazon saw in 2023, it’s still a slight acceleration from last year. Amazon will also likely continue to capture a growing share—around 16%—of all US retail sales that occur on the days of its event.
Amazon’s Prime events have a ripple effect, consistently lifting US retail sales, underscoring their outsized influence. Major retailers traditionally launch competing promotions. This October, that includes Walmart Deals from October 7 to 12, Target Circle Week from October 5 to 11, and Kohl’s 4-Day Cyber Deals from October 6 to 9. With consumers facing a strained economic environment, more will likely be on the hunt for early holiday deals. We anticipate that total US retail sales during the event window will climb 4% year-over-year. That outpaces our projected retail growth for the full month of October, at 3%, and aligns with our holiday sales forecast.
Pyxis
Pyxis, Bain’s consumer analytics division, helps businesses navigate complex consumer landscapes and stay ahead of the competition. With one of the world’s largest ecosystems of transactional data, Pyxis has completed over 2,000 projects, delivering SKU-level visibility and uncovering shifts that drive growth, market share, loyalty, product development, M&A, and more.
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First published in Oktober 2025