Of all clinicians who expect compensation decreases, half expect their pay to decrease by more than 25%, according to Bain & Company's April 8-13 survey of more than 300 physicians and nurses, 60% of which are frontline hospitalists and emergency, intensive case and infectious disease providers and 40% are primary care doctors and other specialists. As hospitals lose revenue from canceled elective surgeries to protect patients and preserve supplies, additional pay cuts are likely in the coming months, which could spur closures or consolidation, analysts said.

"There is a real risk of reduced access—I think some physician practices are going to close," said Miachael Brookshire, a partner with Bain & Company and co-author of the report, adding that there has been a large shift from commercial payers to Medicare, Medicaid and the exchanges, which complicates the economic picture. "There is also a risk that fewer doctors will be interested in primary care if the economics get worse and safety concerns are higher. It puts pressure on a market that is already in short supply—the same goes for nurses as well."