Summary

Online video, social gaming, tablets and e-readers have been among the many contenders to become the “next big thing” in media over the past seven years. Have they lived up to their promise? Has the media industry generated more usage and economic value since 2005? What reasons for hope are emerging today?

For each of the past four meetings of the Forum d’Avignon, Bain has studied how people consume content through connected devices. Our latest global survey of more than 6,000 consumers highlights how innovations remain largely shaped by five underlying trends:

• Abundance: Consumers want to access an “infinite shelf” of content 

• Personalization: Consumers are increasingly segmented by their interests

• Aggregation: Fragmented audiences converge toward powerful digital platforms

• Community: Social networks are becoming key to content choices

• Engagement: Consumers are actively involved in content discovery and data curation

Our in-depth look at the state of media and devices across several categories (music, video, books and video games) suggests that this field is as turbulent as ever, with cycles of innovation and reinvention creating a fertile ground for exploring new models. Far from reaching levels of stability or maturity, each of these industries shows strong signs of a seven-year itch, continually on the lookout for the next big thing.

• After years of decline and transformation, the music industry sees hope of recovery in new business models and online aggregators
• Tablets are changing the way consumers watch video, heralding the age of social TV
• The digital migration of the book publishing industry hinges on uncertainties regarding value creation models in Europe and the US
• Video games, once secure on their console model, have been shaken by mobile, Web and “freemium” models

Amid the uncertainty of such cycles of disruption and value creation, we see a set of compelling reasons for hope emerging. Consumers across the world continue to express an ever-growing appetite for content, stimulating new media experiences, including many that bridge creators and consumers in both developed economies and emerging markets. As a result, the content industry is poised to regain its pre-2008 economic value by the end of 2012, driven largely by the emerging markets. Equally important, we see the emergence of a “middle ground” in the media space: a sustainable, diverse market for properties that fills the gap between mass franchises and niche content, which will open new growth opportunities for an industry that has never lacked for new ideas.

Patrick Béhar is a senior partner with the Paris office of Bain & Company and leads the firm’s Media & Entertainment practice in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Laurent Colombani is a partner with the Paris office of Bain & Company, managing its French activities.

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