インタラクティブ
Our commercial aircraft fleet forecast provides decision makers across the aviation industry with a clear view of evolving supply-demand dynamics. Ten-year projections of fleet size, deliveries, and removals support strategic decisions ranging from market entry to facility optimization in this increasingly uncertain market.
- The global commercial aviation fleet is projected to increase at approximately 2.4% per year from 2025 to 2035, supported by a 3.9% annual rise in revenue passenger kilometers.
- While the fleet will expand, a portion of demand will be met through higher aircraft utilization (e.g., seat density, fleet mix) and the return to service of aircraft currently grounded by maintenance backlogs, reducing the need for incremental new aircraft.
- The narrowbody segment will lead the market. As Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 production lines reach target rates over the next two to three years, we expect approximately 21,500 aircraft to be delivered globally over the next decade.
- Deliveries are set to accelerate, reaching roughly 7% of the active fleet by 2028. Combined with an aging installed base, rising deliveries will likely result in increased fleet retirements beginning in the early 2030s, marking a shift from the supply-constrained environment we expect to persist over the next two to three years.
- By 2032, we expect the global fleet to return to a balanced state, with new deliveries, retirements, and average aircraft age realigning more than 12 years after supply disruptions related to Covid-19 and the 737 MAX.