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- March’s Consumer Health Indexes (CHI) data reinforces the general picture we described last month—consumers remain in a weak position as the first quarter progresses. While there is little evidence of a meaningful strengthening in consumer finances or spending sentiment, this month’s data also does not point to a sudden deterioration. Our composite outlook reading remains slightly negative (below 100) but has edged up modestly this month, suggesting stabilization at a subdued level rather than a rebuilding of confidence.
- Beneath the surface, an income divide persists. Lower-income consumers remain firmly in negative territory and report little improvement, consistent with other signs of a softening labor market. (February nonfarm payrolls meaningfully undershot expectations, falling by 92K jobs vs. forecasts for a 50K gain.) Our middle- and upper-income outlook readings improved somewhat this month, but we do not interpret this as the start of a broad reacceleration. Rather, this trend appears more consistent with continued incremental movement within existing ranges, which does not suggest a turn in consumer behavior is underway.
- Spending intentions tell a similar story. The overall index is near neutral. Lower-income consumers are still signaling contraction. Upper-income households report modestly positive spending plans.
- The consumer remains stressed, and this month’s data offers no all-clear signal. We advise clients to consider scenarios in which consumer spending fails to maintain typical growth rates or lower-income consumers pull back spending more significantly.
Bain and Dynata created the Consumer Health Indexes in 2017 to support business decision makers in their near- and midterm planning for their businesses. To achieve this, we have been asking questions that are within the expertise of the people taking our surveys. What are their personal spending plans? What are their saving plans? What is their use-of-debt plan? These are direct, easily understandable questions about survey respondents’ near-term expected behaviors. They require little interpretation, macroeconomic expertise, or filtering through the lens of the political or news cycle. Since 2017, our clients have been using our Consumer Health Indexes as a differentiated data point relative to existing confidence indicators.
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