Retail Holiday Newsletter
Holiday heavyweight Amazon typically captures a hefty portion of US e-commerce spending during the second half of the year, growing its share of the overall market. This holiday season, the size of the prize is big: We forecast e-commerce will account for 55% of holiday sales growth. US e-commerce spending for the fourth quarter could reach $327 billion. And we believe Amazon is poised to once again take a significant portion, reaching 39% market share.
However, Amazon has experienced some bumps over the last year. Its 2021 fourth-quarter share was the lowest seen in recent years, as online competition continued to intensify. We also estimate the retail behemoth lost share in the third quarter of 2022.
Amazon’s recent announcement of its Prime Early Access Sale could boost fourth-quarter growth. But rivals' competing online sales events may present a formidable challenge. Nevertheless, we forecast Amazon will grow share by 1.5 percentage points over the third quarter.
2022 Holiday Shopping Outlook
Bain forecasts 7.5% nominal growth in US holiday retail sales. Six tips can help retailers capture their fair share this season and beyond.